Caterpillar is an easy short because its price assumed revenue would double, and 24% growth is underwhelming by comparison. That stands even after the stock jumped premarket on what @brent_e_trader called a huge earnings beat and raise. x.com 

Caterpillar looks set to drop hard after a parabolic move. The stock is not cheap, margins are stretched and buyers chased it, which explains why Michael Burry shorted it here. If Burry has called the top, he would close the short around $579. x.com 

Caterpillar's strong fundamentals should eventually help its shares find support once investors agree on a new multiple. The stock is down 35% from its peak after a parabolic run; continued separation of gross profit from operating expenses would be welcome. x.com 

Caterpillar is priced like a turbo-charged Walmart, which is worse for a cyclical company. A quoted post notes it trades at 35x next-twelve-month earnings while EPS estimates are at a record high; its past three big buying opportunities came at about 30x at notable earnings troughs. x.com 

Caterpillar looks like a prime short because it trades on AI-style hype without earnings to match. Its quarter-on-quarter numbers aren't proving out: last quarter it earned less than last September, and revenue versus last year doesn't look great. The stock ran up hard even with rates at their peak and likely to stay there for a while. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Caterpillar's dip below Wall Street's average price target is a rare opportunity after a massive second-quarter double beat. Adjusted EPS was $8.17 against a $5.71 estimate, and sales were $20.5 billion against $18.36 billion expected. x.com 

Caterpillar is expensive against its earnings at 25x next year's EPS, versus the 19x its industry usually gets. At 19x the $32.43 forecast EPS, give or take 12%, fair value is about $542-690, so at $811 the stock sits 18% above the top of that range. Forward EPS is 40% above trailing, so the view leans on forecasts, and it is a valuation-levels read rather than fundamental work. x.com 

Caterpillar has stretched too far on valuation relative to its main peers, especially Cummins. United Rentals, despite less direct exposure to data centers, is still catching up on multiples. x.com 

Caterpillar should gradually climb much higher after a pullback, because the market looks more like 1998 than 2000 on Jesse Livermore's hand-drawn chart pattern. Michael Burry is shorting Caterpillar, but that is standing in front of a freight train, with liquidity, leveraged ETFs and gamma squeezes driving most of the buying. x.com 

Caterpillar looks asymmetric to the downside near $904 because higher-for-longer rates hurt all its lines: data centers, metals and mining capex, and energy. Oil won't let the Fed cut, and Iran seems to be stalling, so fade a deal. Up 3x this year, near its high at over 40x, it faces normalization or a capex cycle reversal. Dealer demand needs healthy financing as IPOs drain liquidity, and model routing could cut compute needs. If wrong, upside looks limited. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more