Axon is an incredible company, but its roughly $42B price already assumes much of management's 2028 plan. That is about 11.4-11.6x projected 2026 revenue and 45x estimated adjusted EBITDA; 25x the 2028 target of about $1.68B EBITDA is roughly today's value. Revenue grows above 30%, AI is already monetized and switching costs are high, yet near-perfect expectations can mean weak returns. Q1 net income leaned on investment gains, and stock-based compensation and dilution need watching. x.com x.comÂ