The Inflection Economy
Portfolio Managers at Logos LP
Axon's very strong Q1 and rising bookings support its growth case. Revenue was $807 million versus $779 million expected, EPS $1.61 versus $1.60, and net retention 125%. It guides 2026 revenue growth of 30-32%, with future contracted bookings up 44%. Stock-based compensation remains the main drawback, with about 4.5% share dilution that is high but should come down materially over time. x.com x.comÂ
Axon is the only drone-related stock worth touching, because it offers network effects rather than a commodity product. x.comÂ
Axon still looks a little expensive even after falling 60% from its highs, and it only looks cheap at a forward P/E in the 20s, around the $250s. Revenue is expected to grow 30% a year for two to three years and its forward sales multiple has compressed from 22.9 to 7.8 times. Support should hold in the high $320s; a tiny swing position is justified only above $325. x.comÂ
Axon delivered another elite quarter, reinforcing its standing as a compounding machine. x.comÂ
Axon is attempting to start a new Stage 2 uptrend in Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis, the transition that often produces the biggest winners. It completed a Stage 4 decline, built a six-month Stage 1 base, and reclaimed its 200-day moving average and all-time-high anchored VWAP. The public-safety ecosystem of TASERs, body cameras and AI software is projected to grow revenue from $3.0B to $6.1B by 2028 and EPS from $2.98 to $13.73. x.comÂ
Axon Enterprise still trades at too much of a premium, even though it is an amazing company with a strong moat. The latest quarter was good, but it raised some concerns, or at least questions, about margins. x.comÂ
Axon is a buy because Trump is buying it. x.comÂ
Big money showed up in Axon at its long-term trendline. x.comÂ
Axon still trades at about 50x forward earnings despite falling roughly 50% from its all-time high, a reminder to avoid overpaying for growth. x.comÂ
Axon remains a better investment than Flock Safety, its closest peer, even after an 80% rise. Public backlash against Flock's automated license plate reading cameras won't go away and will weigh on its valuation; secondary pricing implied 30x revenue or more, versus Axon at 9x forward when it traded at a $33B enterprise value. Flock is probably too expensive to be acquired, leaving an eventual IPO as its likely exit. x.comÂ