Axon's potential to compound for a long time makes it look undervalued. x.com 

Axon remains attractive, though Motorola's police radio relationships could help it sell cameras and evidence software and put pricing pressure on Axon in upcoming deals. Louisiana State Police, an Axon customer since 2017, signed a 10-year Motorola contract. Motorola's police drone partnerships and counter-drone acquisition also make drones a battleground, though Axon has the edge in international growth and drones. The stickiness of Axon's taser and evidence workflows remains an open question. … Show more

Axon is an incredible company, but its roughly $42B price already assumes much of management's 2028 plan. That is about 11.4-11.6x projected 2026 revenue and 45x estimated adjusted EBITDA; 25x the 2028 target of about $1.68B EBITDA is roughly today's value. Revenue grows above 30%, AI is already monetized and switching costs are high, yet near-perfect expectations can mean weak returns. Q1 net income leaned on investment gains, and stock-based compensation and dilution need watching. x.com  x.com 

Unrest could increase demand for Axon's police equipment as the economy worsens. Western Europe now looks bullish for Axon if police departments have competent leadership: with riots, police need everything they can get. x.com 

Axon is the only drone-related stock worth touching, because it offers network effects rather than a commodity product. x.com 

Axon Enterprise still trades at too much of a premium, even though it is an amazing company with a strong moat. The latest quarter was good, but it raised some concerns, or at least questions, about margins. x.com 

Axon is attempting to start a new Stage 2 uptrend in Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis, the transition that often produces the biggest winners. It completed a Stage 4 decline, built a six-month Stage 1 base, and reclaimed its 200-day moving average and all-time-high anchored VWAP. The public-safety ecosystem of TASERs, body cameras and AI software is projected to grow revenue from $3.0B to $6.1B by 2028 and EPS from $2.98 to $13.73. x.com 

Axon remains a better investment than Flock Safety, its closest peer, even after an 80% rise. Public backlash against Flock's automated license plate reading cameras won't go away and will weigh on its valuation; secondary pricing implied 30x revenue or more, versus Axon at 9x forward when it traded at a $33B enterprise value. Flock is probably too expensive to be acquired, leaving an eventual IPO as its likely exit. x.com 

Axon Enterprise looks weak in the near term: it has given up most of its post-earnings gains and more, and a massive rejection at the 100-day moving average created significant risk for those who chased the earnings pop. It may look like a great opportunity, but there is still too much macro uncertainty. That came despite strong results, with revenue up 39% and 122% net revenue retention; an unexpected positive announcement could still lift the stock. x.com  x.com 

Axon delivered another elite quarter, reinforcing its standing as a compounding machine. x.com