FIRED Up Wealth
Motley Fool Analyst & Investment Educator
Axon Enterprise is one of tech's strongest compounders, and selloffs alongside the software basket are long-term buying opportunities because it is not just software. It leads public safety tech, from Tasers and body cams to evidence management, and is building an AI moat with Draft One and Axon Assistant. Q4 revenue rose 39% to $797M and bookings 43% to $14.4B, with about 29% annual growth targeted to roughly $6B by 2028. At about 59x earnings it is not cheap, but the growth is real. x.com x.comÂ
Axon's potential to compound for a long time makes it look undervalued. x.comÂ
Axon remains attractive, though Motorola's police radio relationships could help it sell cameras and evidence software and put pricing pressure on Axon in upcoming deals. Louisiana State Police, an Axon customer since 2017, signed a 10-year Motorola contract. Motorola's police drone partnerships and counter-drone acquisition also make drones a battleground, though Axon has the edge in international growth and drones. The stickiness of Axon's taser and evidence workflows remains an open question. … Show more
Axon is an incredible company, but its roughly $42B price already assumes much of management's 2028 plan. That is about 11.4-11.6x projected 2026 revenue and 45x estimated adjusted EBITDA; 25x the 2028 target of about $1.68B EBITDA is roughly today's value. Revenue grows above 30%, AI is already monetized and switching costs are high, yet near-perfect expectations can mean weak returns. Q1 net income leaned on investment gains, and stock-based compensation and dilution need watching. x.com x.comÂ
Axon remains a better investment than Flock Safety, its closest peer, even after an 80% rise. Public backlash against Flock's automated license plate reading cameras won't go away and will weigh on its valuation; secondary pricing implied 30x revenue or more, versus Axon at 9x forward when it traded at a $33B enterprise value. Flock is probably too expensive to be acquired, leaving an eventual IPO as its likely exit. x.comÂ
Axon is a buy because Trump is buying it. x.comÂ
Axon Enterprise still trades at too much of a premium, even though it is an amazing company with a strong moat. The latest quarter was good, but it raised some concerns, or at least questions, about margins. x.comÂ
Axon's very strong Q1 and rising bookings support its growth case. Revenue was $807 million versus $779 million expected, EPS $1.61 versus $1.60, and net retention 125%. It guides 2026 revenue growth of 30-32%, with future contracted bookings up 44%. Stock-based compensation remains the main drawback, with about 4.5% share dilution that is high but should come down materially over time. x.com x.comÂ
Drone stocks look obvious winners for the next few years as one of the earliest clear beneficiaries of the robotics revolution. Ondas and AVEX are the preferred exposures, and AeroVironment is also a great pick whose pullback looks overdone relative to its fundamental story. x.comÂ
Axon still trades at about 50x forward earnings despite falling roughly 50% from its all-time high, a reminder to avoid overpaying for growth. x.comÂ
Axon delivered another elite quarter, reinforcing its standing as a compounding machine. x.comÂ