Micron's China sales risk shifting to CXMT as its domestic DRAM capacity grows. Mainland sales more than tripled to $8.3B during the shortage, mostly standard DRAM that CXMT already makes; including Hong Kong, Micron booked $14.6B, 11% of FY2026 revenue. CXMT already has roughly a third of Micron's revenue, and Reuters said its server DDR5 was priced above Samsung's. Micron is the only American maker among the three ahead of CXMT; buyers drawn by supply could switch as it expands. x.com  x.com 

CXMT's refusal to sell DDR5 to a Taiwanese server maker adds evidence that it will not flood the memory market with cheap supply and pressure prices for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Per Taiwanese media, a veteran industry analyst also said Apple found CXMT's memory as expensive as the three major suppliers' and that CXMT had no intention of lowering prices. x.com 

Micron can't and won't make a new high. x.com 

Trump is not going to let Chinese memory chips become serious competitors in the US and West. That makes dips on news out of China a buying opportunity for memory stocks. DRAM fell about 10% in five days, SK hynix over 10% in Korea, Samsung about 7%, and Micron around 5%. RetiringAt54 says CXMT has never mass-produced HBM; this sell-off looks crazy. x.com  x.com 

Micron trades at about 9x while the market pays far richer multiples for chip-equipment vendors, even though Micron and its customers act as if memory stays tight for five years. Its five-year supply agreements cover less volume than customers want, should make up half of revenue and include billions in prepaid cash that effectively funds its capex. Micron says HBM demand in 2027 and 2028 is well above its ability to supply. Apple buying CXMT chips looks like a non-event. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Micron faces a severe crash risk from CXMT's current threat and apparent investor complacency after a euphoric high. If the Wall St Cheat Sheet fits, most of Micron's gains across 40 years, amassed in just one year, could be erased soon. Earlier, Elon Musk said Micron had been reasonable on future memory prices; memory stocks were not yet to be faded. x.com  x.com 

Micron's selloff on CXMT's IPO is noise: Micron is booked through 2028 with a shortage persisting, and the US won't store its memory on Chinese chips. It trades at 5x earnings, below its 30-year floor of 6x, and could buy back the company with its own cash in a couple of years. Other AI worries, such as Nvidia backstopping OpenAI's $250 billion buildout and open-weight Kimi K3, aren't real issues either; if open models matched Claude, even more data centers would be built. x.com 

Chinese memory is not even cheaper and is likely to be banned soon, which favors SanDisk, Micron and SK hynix. Per South Korean media cited by @jukan05, CXMT rejected Apple's request for lower mobile DRAM prices and insisted on prices equal to or above those of Samsung and SK hynix. x.com 

Buying the DRAM dip looks too risky now because CXMT's ambitious next-generation 4F plan and SK hynix's aggressive production expansion raise supply concerns for memory stocks such as Micron, SK hynix and Samsung. CXMT is unlikely to become a serious competitive threat, but it could still weigh on storage-stock sentiment. x.com  x.com 

The memory cycle looks set to last longer than expected because Micron is spending as if AI memory demand will run for years. Its capex was $27.4B in FY26 and about $25B in FY27's first half alone, with the second half expected higher, putting $50B+ in play; Micron wouldn't spend this aggressively if it saw the cycle ending next year. AI is consuming huge amounts of DRAM, NAND and HBM, a shortage that also benefits SK hynix, Samsung, SanDisk, Western Digital and Seagate. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more