Apple's roughly 40 times trailing and 37 times forward earnings make the shares too expensive ahead of next week's results. A short looks reasonable, though a sell-the-news reaction after earnings remains uncertain. x.com  x.com 

Apple's roughly 35x forward earnings premium looks unsustainable. If fear around the AI trade fades, its gains could stall or reverse. x.com  x.com 

Apple can be the AI winner in consumer agents, which could push the stock to new highs. The new smart Siri launches next month with full AI in-app developer tools, a potential breakthrough: local, private agents for billions of people with easy UX and access to all on-device data. Near term the stock was priced to perfection at over 40x earnings, and Q2 missed and guided lower on memory supply issues and weak services. @MilkRoadAI also notes the App Store's first sales decline in a decade. x.com 

Apple's valuation pays too hefty a premium for its expected long-term earnings growth. Its forward P/E-to-growth ratio is 2.58; even if the market sees its hardware moat and ability to exploit others' AI investments despite underinvesting itself as a winning strategy, that premium is too high. x.com 

Apple's growth valuation gives too much credit to a $2,000 folding iPhone and a touchscreen MacBook. Its 36.16 forward P/E and 3.54 PEG are higher than recent readings over the past two years, making this a point to take serious profits. x.com 

Apple's 9% drop on weaker guidance is negligible for a long-term holder. It beat earnings, but guidance was hurt by significant DRAM and NAND price inflation and supply constraints, which also suggests the memory supercycle is not over. Apple is one of the names worth holding long term, and Alphabet's earnings gap-down recovered within days. x.com 

Memory-cost pressure, weak volumes and weak services should make Apple's quarter bad, giving the short a chance to work on this quarter alone. Other hardware companies this quarter also point to weakness, though Apple has been a terrible short so far. x.com  x.com 

Apple's weak Mac and iPhone demand and soaring costs threaten worse Q3 results and Q4 guidance than its weak Q2. IDC estimates Mac sales fell 11% y/y in Q3 after rising 13% in Q2. Counterpoint says Pro sales rose just 3% in the first three weeks while overall iPhone sales fell; lower-end models are absent this year. Foldable yields are reportedly 60%, and $100 price hikes may not offset costs. At $5 trillion, 39 P/E and 11 times sales, Apple's crowded 'safe haven' looks vulnerable. x.com 

Apple's shares trading this far below consensus has historically not lasted long. x.com 

Apple's price is held up by index dispersion and gamma positioning rather than its business value. Its supposed bull case is that, as a non-AI name, it moves inversely to AI stocks; only flows strong enough to break the gamma grip permit price discovery. Fair value is 75% below the current price. x.com