George Noble
Investment Writer, Former Fund Manager at Fidelity, Former Assistant to Peter Lynch
Gold, energy and commodities are worth owning as heavily as possible because rising real yields now point toward another Treasury intervention. Per Robin Brooks, a rising real 10-year Treasury yield would normally be bearish for gold, but these are not normal times, and higher real yields raise the odds of intervention, which is bullish for gold. x.comÂ
Gold is one of the few real hedges left because the core problem is currency debasement, which hits bonds first. Washington takes in about $5T a year, spends $7.5T and owes $40T plus $125T of off-balance-sheet promises, yet borrows for 10 years at 4.5% with inflation above 3% and rising. Yields are up 40bp despite a war and belong nearer 5.5-6%, and Japan's 30-year-high yields may pull money home. With less Fed liquidity left for markets, gold and energy, which can't be printed, are the hedge. x.comÂ
Gold and silver may benefit if yields ease a little further from their local high for a while longer. The FOMC meeting and minutes could be good for both. x.comÂ
Gold is set to take off as energy-driven stagflation traps the Fed and negative real rates favor it. Today's dovish hold was likely its last chance to hike: once the AI bubble bursts, the Fed loses that option, while current debt-to-GDP rules out Volcker-style hikes without fiscal insolvency. Per Macrotrends' chart, gold rose eightfold from its 1976 low to its 1980 high, equivalent to $32,000 gold over five years in today's terms. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rising Treasury yields make non-yielding gold less attractive, setting up one major selloff before the next big rally. Oil above $100 adds inflation and rate pressure; higher yields could lift the dollar, while gold ETF outflows and forced selling in a liquidity crisis add risk. The Benner Cycle flags 2026 as a potential selling period. The long-term bull market is not necessarily over: central banks are still buying and long-term demand remains strong. Gold is not worth chasing at these levels. … Show more
Gold wins when policymakers pin yields and let inflation run, because real assets gain while cash loses. Gold is at all-time highs and bitcoin has drawn heavy inflows almost daily since Aug. 5 as institutions front-run the government's promise to prop up the market. Stanley Druckenmiller warns in the WSJ that this price management does not fix the debt, only decides who pays, and the bill lands on cash holders. Waiting means buying at higher prices what institutions already own. x.com x.comÂ
Gold is a secular long-term long, and its weakness should reverse once oil falls and pulls yields down. Oil now drives yields, with their correlation at a 35-year high, as high oil prices keep inflation expectations elevated. Gulf exports are normalizing, so oil should come down soon once the war ends, with yields following and gold recovering. x.com x.comÂ
Gold is under pressure because a sharply higher US 10-year yield, now 5.22%, makes holding a zero-yield asset expensive in opportunity cost. Gold fell 3% and silver 5% in a day after two weeks of rising yields. Gold has also moved inversely to bitcoin over the past week, a sign speculative flows are favoring crypto over real assets. x.comÂ
Gold and bitcoin should benefit because the Fed is not going to hike rates, so priced-in hikes must be priced out. Treasury Secretary Bessent is fighting for his life in the 30-year market, and a Warsh hike flattening the curve would hurt him, so the two are unlikely to be at odds. The US also looks headed to war with Iran, when the government most wants cheap funding. If they do hike, Bessent stepping further into the 30-year market would be bearish for the dollar. x.com x.comÂ
Gold's next rally is building as soaring Treasury yields slow the US economy toward rate cuts. The 30-year yield broke 5.3%, its highest since 2007, driven not by Fed hikes but by heavy selling: Japan selling Treasuries to defend the yen, a FY2026 US deficit above $2.1T and de-dollarization as countries swap Treasuries for gold. With mortgage and corporate rates at 6-8%, the market has tightened for the Fed; once the economy cools and cut expectations rise, gold benefits. It needs patience. … Show more
Gold is hard to hold at a 0% yield while interest rates keep rising. @Mr_Derivatives notes gold's 3.93% drop at the close was the fifth-worst drawdown of the year, driven by rates. x.comÂ
Gold's dip on rate-driven opportunity costs is a buying opportunity, because higher rates force faster money-supply growth. The system is designed that way, since letting defaults ripple through it is politically unfeasible, and that pressure will intensify until the great monetary reset. x.comÂ
