Tulip King
Head of Strategy at CounterpartyTV, Crypto Investor
Gold and bitcoin should benefit because the Fed is not going to hike rates, so priced-in hikes must be priced out. Treasury Secretary Bessent is fighting for his life in the 30-year market, and a Warsh hike flattening the curve would hurt him, so the two are unlikely to be at odds. The US also looks headed to war with Iran, when the government most wants cheap funding. If they do hike, Bessent stepping further into the 30-year market would be bearish for the dollar. x.com x.comÂ
Gold is the trade, and recent weakness is a short-term dislocation against the mega trade of shorting the petrodollar, so the dip is a buy. The selling comes from central banks moving custody, such as France selling 129 tonnes held in New York to buy equivalent gold in Europe, which is very bullish long term, and from countries selling to defend currencies, fund war or evade sanctions, like Turkey, Russia and Iran. Oil is not returning to historical norms, so gold must appreciate, if slowly. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold's dip on rate-driven opportunity costs is a buying opportunity, because higher rates force faster money-supply growth. The system is designed that way, since letting defaults ripple through it is politically unfeasible, and that pressure will intensify until the great monetary reset. x.comÂ
Gold is set to take off as energy-driven stagflation traps the Fed and negative real rates favor it. Today's dovish hold was likely its last chance to hike: once the AI bubble bursts, the Fed loses that option, while current debt-to-GDP rules out Volcker-style hikes without fiscal insolvency. Per Macrotrends' chart, gold rose eightfold from its 1976 low to its 1980 high, equivalent to $32,000 gold over five years in today's terms. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rising Treasury yields make non-yielding gold less attractive, setting up one major selloff before the next big rally. Oil above $100 adds inflation and rate pressure; higher yields could lift the dollar, while gold ETF outflows and forced selling in a liquidity crisis add risk. The Benner Cycle flags 2026 as a potential selling period. The long-term bull market is not necessarily over: central banks are still buying and long-term demand remains strong. Gold is not worth chasing at these levels. … Show more
Gold and silver may benefit if yields ease a little further from their local high for a while longer. The FOMC meeting and minutes could be good for both. x.comÂ
Gold is extremely attractive now because rising market fear could make it a great hedge. It has fallen nearly 30% from its January all-time high and returned to the accumulation zone. If this level holds, expect a bounce soon. x.comÂ
Gold is hard to hold at a 0% yield while interest rates keep rising. @Mr_Derivatives notes gold's 3.93% drop at the close was the fifth-worst drawdown of the year, driven by rates. x.comÂ
Gold traders are misreading the jump in two-year yields through a monetary-dominance lens: under fiscal dominance, more interest paid on T-bills is actually more liquidity injection, which could create opportunities. After the Civil War, McCulloch switched regimes by retiring greenbacks and balancing the budget, which lowered rates and sent the dollar sharply higher against gold. Japan, with a shrinking primary deficit and QT, is far closer to that austerity regime than the US. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Gold is a secular long-term long, and its weakness should reverse once oil falls and pulls yields down. Oil now drives yields, with their correlation at a 35-year high, as high oil prices keep inflation expectations elevated. Gulf exports are normalizing, so oil should come down soon once the war ends, with yields following and gold recovering. x.com x.comÂ
Gold is dumping because the Iran conflict pushed up oil and inflation, leaving less room for rate cuts and lifting yields, and more downside lies ahead. It was overheated at peak attention, and retail is now skipping it for cash and short-duration Treasuries. The setup mirrors 1979, when an Iran war doubled oil prices and led to crisis and a gold dump; higher real yields also raise the cost of capital and pressure the concentrated AI leaders. x.comÂ
Gold wins when policymakers pin yields and let inflation run, because real assets gain while cash loses. Gold is at all-time highs and bitcoin has drawn heavy inflows almost daily since Aug. 5 as institutions front-run the government's promise to prop up the market. Stanley Druckenmiller warns in the WSJ that this price management does not fix the debt, only decides who pays, and the bill lands on cash holders. Waiting means buying at higher prices what institutions already own. x.com x.comÂ
