Gold is set to take off as energy-driven stagflation traps the Fed and negative real rates favor it. Today's dovish hold was likely its last chance to hike: once the AI bubble bursts, the Fed loses that option, while current debt-to-GDP rules out Volcker-style hikes without fiscal insolvency. Per Macrotrends' chart, gold rose eightfold from its 1976 low to its 1980 high, equivalent to $32,000 gold over five years in today's terms. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Gold's next rally is building as soaring Treasury yields slow the US economy toward rate cuts. The 30-year yield broke 5.3%, its highest since 2007, driven not by Fed hikes but by heavy selling: Japan selling Treasuries to defend the yen, a FY2026 US deficit above $2.1T and de-dollarization as countries swap Treasuries for gold. With mortgage and corporate rates at 6-8%, the market has tightened for the Fed; once the economy cools and cut expectations rise, gold benefits. It needs patience. … Show more

Rising Treasury yields make non-yielding gold less attractive, setting up one major selloff before the next big rally. Oil above $100 adds inflation and rate pressure; higher yields could lift the dollar, while gold ETF outflows and forced selling in a liquidity crisis add risk. The Benner Cycle flags 2026 as a potential selling period. The long-term bull market is not necessarily over: central banks are still buying and long-term demand remains strong. Gold is not worth chasing at these levels. … Show more

Gold and bitcoin should benefit because the Fed is not going to hike rates, so priced-in hikes must be priced out. Treasury Secretary Bessent is fighting for his life in the 30-year market, and a Warsh hike flattening the curve would hurt him, so the two are unlikely to be at odds. The US also looks headed to war with Iran, when the government most wants cheap funding. If they do hike, Bessent stepping further into the 30-year market would be bearish for the dollar. x.com  x.com 

Gold and silver may benefit if yields ease a little further from their local high for a while longer. The FOMC meeting and minutes could be good for both. x.com 

Gold is hard to hold at a 0% yield while interest rates keep rising. @Mr_Derivatives notes gold's 3.93% drop at the close was the fifth-worst drawdown of the year, driven by rates. x.com 

Gold's structural driver is fiscal debasement, and the cyclical real-rate headwind is on a timer, so both forces point up for the first time this cycle. Deficits near $1.9T, about 6% of GDP at full employment, keep multiplying claims on assets. Real rates rose passively as one-year inflation expectations fell from 3.2% to 2.2%, but policy sits above neutral, labor data rolled over and cuts are becoming the base case. Past secular peaks needed shrinking deficits, which are not in sight. x.com  … Show more

Gold should benefit because the US Treasury and the Fed will do whatever it takes to bring long-term bond yields under control and save confidence in the dollar. That means de facto money printing through new short-term debt, swap lines to governments hurt by the Iran war and buying foreign currencies so holders don't sell US debt. These actions are inflationary, making crypto and gold the assets to own. Stocks can keep rising for a while but may not stay the fastest runner. x.com 

Gold is under pressure because a sharply higher US 10-year yield, now 5.22%, makes holding a zero-yield asset expensive in opportunity cost. Gold fell 3% and silver 5% in a day after two weeks of rising yields. Gold has also moved inversely to bitcoin over the past week, a sign speculative flows are favoring crypto over real assets. x.com 

Gold should really get going again as the US returns to quantitative easing, while the Treasury and the FOMC now find themselves in conflict. Stocks will jump too. x.com