Gold is set to take off as energy-driven stagflation traps the Fed and negative real rates favor it. Today's dovish hold was likely its last chance to hike: once the AI bubble bursts, the Fed loses that option, while current debt-to-GDP rules out Volcker-style hikes without fiscal insolvency. Per Macrotrends' chart, gold rose eightfold from its 1976 low to its 1980 high, equivalent to $32,000 gold over five years in today's terms. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Gold's dip on rate-driven opportunity costs is a buying opportunity, because higher rates force faster money-supply growth. The system is designed that way, since letting defaults ripple through it is politically unfeasible, and that pressure will intensify until the great monetary reset. x.com 

Rising Treasury yields make non-yielding gold less attractive, setting up one major selloff before the next big rally. Oil above $100 adds inflation and rate pressure; higher yields could lift the dollar, while gold ETF outflows and forced selling in a liquidity crisis add risk. The Benner Cycle flags 2026 as a potential selling period. The long-term bull market is not necessarily over: central banks are still buying and long-term demand remains strong. Gold is not worth chasing at these levels. … Show more

Gold and silver may benefit if yields ease a little further from their local high for a while longer. The FOMC meeting and minutes could be good for both. x.com 

Central-bank gold accumulation may be an early warning of inflation, adding to gold's reserve-demand case. Gold's share of non-US central-bank reserves has risen to 24%; the last comparable surge preceded double-digit inflation. Inflation is nowhere near that level today, but central banks buying about 1,000 tonnes a year suggest they do not consider it settled and see debt rising. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Gold faces continued selling pressure as GLD records its biggest weekly outflow since March. November seasonality often favors gold, but gold is still not bullish beyond a bounce. x.com  x.com 

Gold traders are misreading the jump in two-year yields through a monetary-dominance lens: under fiscal dominance, more interest paid on T-bills is actually more liquidity injection, which could create opportunities. After the Civil War, McCulloch switched regimes by retiring greenbacks and balancing the budget, which lowered rates and sent the dollar sharply higher against gold. Japan, with a shrinking primary deficit and QT, is far closer to that austerity regime than the US. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Gold's long-term bull case holds because rising defense spending and higher US rates increase the risk from US fiscal deficits, reinforcing gold as a store of value. Per VanEck's Jan van Eck, the pullback reflects short-term forces: stretched positioning, Middle East energy producers likely selling Treasuries and gold for cash as the Iran war disrupts revenue, and an unwind of speculative ETF positions. Global wealth growth should return and lift private and central bank demand. x.com 

Gold's failure to rise even after rates pulled back decently challenges the earlier high-rate explanation for its weakness. GLD is close to fresh 11-month lows and just closed at a new 14-month low relative to the S&P 500. Gold has trended down since its parabolic January peak. x.com  x.com 

Gold is worth owning because of unstable, inconsistent central bank policy, currency depreciation and a lack of fiscal discipline from both parties in Washington. The predictable pressure on precious metals from higher rates and fears of a Fed hike tomorrow is likely discounted or close to it, so the risk/reward is attractive despite a technical breakdown evident for weeks. Like any commodity whose intrinsic value is hard to calculate, gold will stay volatile on both the downside and upside. … Show more