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Gold is dumping because the Iran conflict pushed up oil and inflation, leaving less room for rate cuts and lifting yields, and more downside lies ahead. It was overheated at peak attention, and retail is now skipping it for cash and short-duration Treasuries. The setup mirrors 1979, when an Iran war doubled oil prices and led to crisis and a gold dump; higher real yields also raise the cost of capital and pressure the concentrated AI leaders. x.comÂ
Rising oil worsens inflation and puts Fed rate hikes back in focus, making non-yielding gold and silver less attractive. Investors are also selling metals to meet margin calls. An estimated $1.83 trillion in combined value was wiped out over recent sessions; both metals remain under pressure as long as oil keeps rising and rate-hike expectations stay high. x.comÂ
Gold is under pressure because a sharply higher US 10-year yield, now 5.22%, makes holding a zero-yield asset expensive in opportunity cost. Gold fell 3% and silver 5% in a day after two weeks of rising yields. Gold has also moved inversely to bitcoin over the past week, a sign speculative flows are favoring crypto over real assets. x.comÂ
Gold is a secular long-term long, and its weakness should reverse once oil falls and pulls yields down. Oil now drives yields, with their correlation at a 35-year high, as high oil prices keep inflation expectations elevated. Gulf exports are normalizing, so oil should come down soon once the war ends, with yields following and gold recovering. x.com x.comÂ
Rising Treasury yields make non-yielding gold less attractive, setting up one major selloff before the next big rally. Oil above $100 adds inflation and rate pressure; higher yields could lift the dollar, while gold ETF outflows and forced selling in a liquidity crisis add risk. The Benner Cycle flags 2026 as a potential selling period. The long-term bull market is not necessarily over: central banks are still buying and long-term demand remains strong. Gold is not worth chasing at these levels. … Show more
The Iran war points to higher oil, higher inflation and higher rates, which mean lower gold and lower bitcoin. x.comÂ
Gold is set to take off as energy-driven stagflation traps the Fed and negative real rates favor it. Today's dovish hold was likely its last chance to hike: once the AI bubble bursts, the Fed loses that option, while current debt-to-GDP rules out Volcker-style hikes without fiscal insolvency. Per Macrotrends' chart, gold rose eightfold from its 1976 low to its 1980 high, equivalent to $32,000 gold over five years in today's terms. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold tends to give back geopolitical spikes because it moves on real rates and the dollar, not missiles. The pattern repeats: a shock sends retail into gold, rates rise to fight inflation, and gold gives it back as smart money sells into retail fear, as with Ukraine in 2022 and at least three times in recent years. Per @KobeissiLetter, gold has erased $7.3 trillion of market cap since the Iran war began. Buying gold out of fear isn't a hedge but exit liquidity. x.comÂ
Gold is hard to hold at a 0% yield while interest rates keep rising. @Mr_Derivatives notes gold's 3.93% drop at the close was the fifth-worst drawdown of the year, driven by rates. x.comÂ
Gold and silver may benefit if yields ease a little further from their local high for a while longer. The FOMC meeting and minutes could be good for both. x.comÂ
Gold faces continued selling pressure as GLD records its biggest weekly outflow since March. November seasonality often favors gold, but gold is still not bullish beyond a bounce. x.com x.comÂ
