Charles Edwards
Founder of Capriole Investments, Digital-Asset Investing
The US-Iran war, inflation fears and rising bond yields make Bitcoin's run to $100,000 much harder. A target that once seemed achievable now looks impossible in 2026. x.com x.comÂ
Gold is dumping because the Iran conflict pushed up oil and inflation, leaving less room for rate cuts and lifting yields, and more downside lies ahead. It was overheated at peak attention, and retail is now skipping it for cash and short-duration Treasuries. The setup mirrors 1979, when an Iran war doubled oil prices and led to crisis and a gold dump; higher real yields also raise the cost of capital and pressure the concentrated AI leaders. x.comÂ
The pause in attacks until the November 3 midterms is the catalyst for the next leg up in risk assets, including bitcoin, US small caps and long-dated Treasuries. x.comÂ
Crude oil should stay elevated until there is a firm deal on the Strait of Hormuz, because a war, unlike tariffs, cannot be undone with a single social-media post. A deal may come soon but could take a while. Meanwhile bond markets are pricing higher inflation and no Fed cuts for much of 2026; only a peace deal with Iran and the strait's reopening would change that backdrop. x.com x.comÂ
An imminent Israeli strike on Iran puts Gulf oil infrastructure at unusually high risk over the next three months, supporting a near-term rise in crude oil. Large trades are betting on oil reaching $115 again. x.comÂ
Oil looks set to fall whichever way the Iran war goes. If it escalates, the US takes over Iran's oil; if it de-escalates, the US says Iran wants to talk. x.com x.comÂ
Rising oil worsens inflation and puts Fed rate hikes back in focus, making non-yielding gold and silver less attractive. Investors are also selling metals to meet margin calls. An estimated $1.83 trillion in combined value was wiped out over recent sessions; both metals remain under pressure as long as oil keeps rising and rate-hike expectations stay high. x.comÂ
Crude oil stays elevated as long as there is no deal with Iran, feeding a vicious cycle in which higher oil keeps inflation sticky and pushes rates higher, breaking the bond market. To bring yields down, Trump must either convince the market oil flows are normal or end the war. x.comÂ
Gold is a secular long-term long, and its weakness should reverse once oil falls and pulls yields down. Oil now drives yields, with their correlation at a 35-year high, as high oil prices keep inflation expectations elevated. Gulf exports are normalizing, so oil should come down soon once the war ends, with yields following and gold recovering. x.com x.comÂ
A possible US strike on Iran poses near-term upside risk for crude oil. If Trump expects to lose the midterms, he may act between Israel's October 27 election and the November 3 US vote. Crude has filled the $101 gap and reached the rising channel's midpoint; if it keeps breaking higher, the next levels are $105, $110 and the channel top near $115. x.comÂ