Autonomy could expand the ride market tenfold, giving Uber a long growth runway if it does. That is the true 10x opportunity, like ridesharing's expansion of the taxi market. Uber will be a $1 trillion company by 2035. Improved autonomous-vehicle margins are possible but uncertain. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Uber is decent value because robotaxis will not be a winner-take-all market. Uber has massive investments and projects with Nvidia and will have its own self-driving robotaxis on the road. It trades at about 18 times earnings versus roughly 380 for Tesla, though sentiment will make it a frustrating tug of war for a long time. x.com 

Uber looks rather negative because driver reclassification, consumer cutbacks and easy switching threaten its business. Making drivers employees could raise costs and push ride prices up around 40%. Food delivery and comfort rides are cut when budgets tighten; riders switch to Lyft or Bolt for a few euros. Tesla or Waymo could bypass Uber with their own apps, and Google can scale quickly. Despite being a great company, Uber has too many unknowns; it is preferable to stay on the sidelines. x.com 

Robotaxis could widen Uber's moat rather than destroy it, because its real advantage is the network matching huge pools of demand with whatever supply is available, not drivers' lack of negotiating power. Robotaxis change the supply but don't eliminate the network. The question is whether Uber becomes the toll road for autonomous mobility, letting Waymo and dozens of competing AV suppliers fight over the economics while Uber owns the customer, demand and dispatch layer. x.com 

Uber's network could become more important in an autonomous world, not less, which the market underestimates. Robotaxi fleets will still need someone to aggregate demand, optimize utilization, route supply, handle payments and bring liquidity to both sides, and Uber already has those layers plus relationships in almost every major city as autonomy rolls out market by market. The chart is ending a two-year $50-80 consolidation above its prior breakout zone. x.com 

Uber cannot compete long term on two of the three things that win consumer markets: product quality and price. Distribution alone will not carry it, though it should keep growing for the next three years because transitions take time. That qualifies @oguzerkan's view that distribution is king and will protect Uber from Tesla and Waymo. x.com 

Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus can carry substantial value before major profits because future cash flows, growth and the chance of success matter more than current P/E. In an illustrative model, a one-year delay cuts opportunity value about 11% if payments stay unchanged; faster sustained growth can more than offset it, while reliable deployment can raise the assessed chance of success. These figures are not Tesla forecasts; investment costs and execution risk still matter. x.com 

Scaling Tesla's robotaxi fleet to 5,000 could yield a $584 million annual revenue run rate by year-end. The model assumes 24/7 operation, 40 daily rides per vehicle averaging five miles, 70% utilization, and current fares of $3 plus $1 per mile. A 5,000-vehicle fleet by year-end is now the expectation; introducing Cybercabs in other states could keep growth going at its current pace. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Uber cannot be owned until its robotaxi strategy and economics are clearer, including whether it stays asset-light or pivots to asset-heavy. Calling it 10 times 2027 free cash flow may be unfair if an asset-heavy pivot sends that cash into capex. Google puts global ridesharing at $150-180 billion in gross bookings a year, reaching $200 billion by decade's end, likely not big enough for Waymo, Tesla and Uber to all win while each spends tens of billions on fleets. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Uber can still win even if Tesla's Cybercab leads, because self-driving overall will be a massive money maker and a rising tide lifts all ships. x.com