Options selling with Christian
Growth Investor, Options Selling, Creator of Stock Catalysts
Uber is decent value because robotaxis will not be a winner-take-all market. Uber has massive investments and projects with Nvidia and will have its own self-driving robotaxis on the road. It trades at about 18 times earnings versus roughly 380 for Tesla, though sentiment will make it a frustrating tug of war for a long time. x.comÂ
Uber looks cheap, and insiders who know the company best are buying, a point @SteurJonas69716 raises. The stock is a solid buy as long as robotaxis do not kill the business, which is doubtful. x.com x.comÂ
Uber is still a long-term believer's stock, but it needs to join forces with Tesla, even if that means giving Tesla equity, to boost revenue and shareholder returns, and its large cash pile could fund an acquisition of Lyft. The recent dip was foreseeable once the Cybercab hype began, and Trump buying the stock is no reason to buy it. x.comÂ
Uber looks rather negative because driver reclassification, consumer cutbacks and easy switching threaten its business. Making drivers employees could raise costs and push ride prices up around 40%. Food delivery and comfort rides are cut when budgets tighten; riders switch to Lyft or Bolt for a few euros. Tesla or Waymo could bypass Uber with their own apps, and Google can scale quickly. Despite being a great company, Uber has too many unknowns; it is preferable to stay on the sidelines. x.comÂ
Uber's network effects could make it the app robotaxi fleets need to keep their cars fully operational. It is one of the best platforms on earth and a five-year buy at today's valuation, with opportunity too compelling to pass up despite shares falling about 25% in the past year on robotaxi fears. Bookings grew 24% last quarter and trailing free cash flow exceeded $10 billion. Waymo and Tesla could choose to bypass Uber; Waymo already runs its own app in most of its cities. x.comÂ
Uber's large, successful network and marketplace give it a moat. The stock is in stage 4, but its fundamentals still appeal. x.comÂ
Uber has big long-term secular problems, enough to make even CEO Dara Khosrowshahi's $10M token insider buy a moment to consider shorting, though actually shorting is not recommended. Beyond the Waymo and robotaxi threat, an AI agent that constantly checks every app for the best price would hurt Uber, consistently the highest-priced ride service. Uber would need to lower prices, and it lacks the tech stack. x.com x.comÂ
Nvidia's robotics and autonomous-vehicle opportunities are not yet baked into its valuation. The stock looks super cheap here and ranks first among the Magnificent Seven for investment attractiveness. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus can carry substantial value before major profits because future cash flows, growth and the chance of success matter more than current P/E. In an illustrative model, a one-year delay cuts opportunity value about 11% if payments stay unchanged; faster sustained growth can more than offset it, while reliable deployment can raise the assessed chance of success. These figures are not Tesla forecasts; investment costs and execution risk still matter. x.comÂ
Uber's valuation is out of balance with its fundamental trajectory over the medium term, and the long-term thesis is less convincing than it once was. It became a cash-flow machine sooner than expected, but the past couple of years have been a grind. It is a hold now and a sell if it reaches the top of its technical channel around $100. x.com x.comÂ
Uber is the toll booth on urban movement: while the market debates whether robotaxis kill it, every autonomous player keeps partnering with Uber for its demand network. Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow topped $10 billion for the first time, with gross bookings up 22%. x.comÂ
