jbulltard
Options Trader, Market Trend Modeling with Custom Data
Wynn Resorts is deep value, worth at least $120-130 a share, and Las Vegas is a small part of that value. Its Las Vegas property alone exceeds the market cap. Caesars and MGM were taken over this year, and after Elaine Wynn's recent death Wynn is the most premium takeover name. The chart looks awful, but every chart does until it doesn't. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Wynn Resorts is undervalued against its luxury assets and cash generation, with a potentially transformational UAE resort ahead. Its $7.6B market cap compares with $2.3B of LTM adjusted property EBITDAR and over $2B of cash and investments. Wynn Al Marjan Island, opening September 2027, targets about $345M of steady-state EBITDAR, roughly 15% of today's base, in a market with little gaming competition. Risks are heavy debt, cyclical gaming, Macau regulation and UAE execution. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Wynn Resorts trades at 10x cash earnings versus the industry's usual 12x, leaving it 33% below where fair value starts. Applying 12x to next year's cash earnings, give or take 12%, puts fair value at $113.75-$144.77 against $75.88 now, with a pullback level at $49.35. The view rests on valuation levels from reported earnings and revenue estimates, without fundamental work. x.com
Hantavirus headlines are being pattern-matched to 2020, and markets react to perception before confirmed reality, so fear alone can shift attention, behavior and capital flows. Whether a lockdown happens matters less than whether the headlines dominate for 60-90 days. That puts Delta, United, American Airlines, Carnival, Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Marriott, Hilton, Las Vegas Sands and Wynn on the bearish side, while automation and AI infrastructure trends accelerate. x.com
MGM Resorts' debt and operating leverage make its low free-cash-flow yield risky. A recession would make the situation very bad even if conditions otherwise look fine, and Diller is following the Liberty levered-buyback model. x.com x.com x.com
MGM Resorts looks due for a bounce after falling nine weeks in a row, something it has done only once in 38 years, at the financial-crisis lows, and never ten. It has retraced much of the takeover bid from a couple of months ago and now trades about 13% below the $48.30 offer price, with RSI getting oversold. A higher bid is even possible. x.com
Red Rock Resorts may be worth a bet off the Las Vegas Strip, with consensus forecasting 69% free cash flow growth in 2027 and 2028. Brothers Frank and Lorenzo Fertitta are its largest beneficial owners, with 90.3% combined voting power, so the founding family remains firmly in control. x.com x.com
Ferrari's buyers are rich people, and rich people never go through a recession. The stock just hit its highest level since November 2025. x.com
LuxExperience is a fundamentally challenged business: an online department store for designer brands has little value proposition when it relies on the ultra-wealthy, who can buy direct from brands at full price with more certainty and a better experience. A post the author replies to notes the top few percent of customers drive 40-50% of spend. It may be the best operator left, but the case rests on it being cheap if things turn, and a recession would hit it hard. x.com
Las Vegas real estate is irreplaceable, not just valuable, which makes Nevada property owners VICI Properties, Howard Hughes Holdings and Seaport Entertainment Group worth owning, with VICI the one to double down on. x.com