GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
Wynn Resorts trades at 10x cash earnings versus the industry's usual 12x, leaving it 33% below where fair value starts. Applying 12x to next year's cash earnings, give or take 12%, puts fair value at $113.75-$144.77 against $75.88 now, with a pullback level at $49.35. The view rests on valuation levels from reported earnings and revenue estimates, without fundamental work. x.comÂ
Wynn Resorts is undervalued against its luxury assets and cash generation, with a potentially transformational UAE resort ahead. Its $7.6B market cap compares with $2.3B of LTM adjusted property EBITDAR and over $2B of cash and investments. Wynn Al Marjan Island, opening September 2027, targets about $345M of steady-state EBITDAR, roughly 15% of today's base, in a market with little gaming competition. Risks are heavy debt, cyclical gaming, Macau regulation and UAE execution. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Wynn Resorts' high-end positioning makes it far less exposed to a Las Vegas downturn than mass-market casino operators. The Wynn brand caters to the top 1%, so a downturn hits it about as much as it hits Rolls-Royce. Wynn Palace in Macau is not a mass-market property either. x.com x.comÂ
Hilton is priced as if the Middle East disruption will have no lasting effect, which is a big leap of faith. The stock is near its all-time high at over 30x 2027 earnings, close to 40x including debt. The Middle East likely provides 5-7% of revenue and an outsized share of its development pipeline, while oil's jet fuel impact and regional travel demand could suffer for years after the past six months. x.comÂ
