Broken Moats
Family-Office Long/Short Research, Variant Perception
Hilton is priced as if the Middle East disruption will have no lasting effect, which is a big leap of faith. The stock is near its all-time high at over 30x 2027 earnings, close to 40x including debt. The Middle East likely provides 5-7% of revenue and an outsized share of its development pipeline, while oil's jet fuel impact and regional travel demand could suffer for years after the past six months. x.com
Booking Holdings is a great business at a nice discount and one of the best ways to play an end to the war and the reopening of the Middle East, as @vijaythirumalai argues. It is a best-in-class asset-light travel business trading at about 16x earnings with roughly 15% EPS growth and a near-10% free cash flow yield, with limited AI disruption risk, unlike Uber with autonomy. The war has created some overhang. Lower prices would be even better for the long term. x.com
Airlines' fuel-driven fare hikes are finally cracking consumer demand. TSA checkpoint traffic is firmly negative year over year, while the airline ETF is breaking down. x.com
Hilton is breaking higher as falling crude oil prices lift travel names. x.com
Pershing Square USA offers little reason to own it when investors can buy its holdings, such as Hilton, Uber, Meta and Chipotle, directly. Per @StockSavvyShay, Bill Ackman's fund opened 15% below its IPO price. x.com x.com
Wynn Resorts trades at 10x cash earnings versus the industry's usual 12x, leaving it 33% below where fair value starts. Applying 12x to next year's cash earnings, give or take 12%, puts fair value at $113.75-$144.77 against $75.88 now, with a pullback level at $49.35. The view rests on valuation levels from reported earnings and revenue estimates, without fundamental work. x.com
Marriott and Hilton are toll booths on a global travel boom, capturing most new hotel growth without owning hotels. Royalties on 19k hotels need near-zero capex, and loyalty programs, 20-30-year contracts and lenders' demand for a major brand flag drive 4-7% unit growth against 1-2% supply. Hilton's fees, about 95% of EBITDA, rose from $814M in 2009 to an estimated $3.7B in 2026, a 10% CAGR on minimal capital. Buybacks and operating leverage compound EPS 11-14%. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Booking Holdings faces a valid long-term bear case as AI agents could take a share of the 13-18% online travel take rate. Testing Meta's Muse and Instinct for a hotel search showed them drawing on Booking and Expedia inventory for now, but agents could eventually build direct ties with long-tail hotels, better reviews and pre- and post-booking service at lower fees. OTAs' own agents look mediocre and lack users' context. At 13x 2027 EPS it tempts as a contrarian long, but looks too tough. x.com … Show more
Marriott International is still inefficiently priced and largely ignored, making it one of the highest-conviction buys right now. It has shown textbook accumulation patterns all year and broke cleanly out of a recently outlined weekly setup. It should strengthen further along with consumer discretionary stocks and the broader S&P 500. x.com
United Airlines is dead money as the Iran war drives up its fuel bill. The Kobeissi Letter reports United's fuel costs rose by $340 million in the first quarter of 2026. x.com
easyJet looks incredibly attractive after oil-driven pressure pushed its shares down, because strong European leisure demand should keep supporting the business. It earns over £10B of revenue and £703M of operating profit against a market cap below £3B, is back to net profit and yields about 3.5%. Its load factor is 92%, travel demand has held up through cost-of-living pressures, and budget airlines often gain share in weak economies as travellers trade down. x.com
