Marriott International is still inefficiently priced and largely ignored, making it one of the highest-conviction buys right now. It has shown textbook accumulation patterns all year and broke cleanly out of a recently outlined weekly setup. It should strengthen further along with consumer discretionary stocks and the broader S&P 500. x.com 

Ryman Hospitality Properties is a wide-moat REIT because its scale and specialization in group hospitality cannot be duplicated. It owns five of the seven largest non-gaming US convention hotels, giving steadier occupancy through cycles, and 70% of Opry Entertainment, including the Grand Ole Opry. Marriott manages its Gaylord resorts and feeds demand through its loyalty program. Shares trade at 10.6x with a well-covered 5.2% yield, and the dividend has more than recovered from its COVID cut. … Show more

Hilton is priced as if the Middle East disruption will have no lasting effect, which is a big leap of faith. The stock is near its all-time high at over 30x 2027 earnings, close to 40x including debt. The Middle East likely provides 5-7% of revenue and an outsized share of its development pipeline, while oil's jet fuel impact and regional travel demand could suffer for years after the past six months. x.com 

Booking Holdings looks ridiculously cheap against its own history, and its business and moat inspire much more confidence than Uber's even with AI risk. Its P/FCF is 11.94, versus a ten-year median of 18.85. x.com 

Booking Holdings is a great business at a nice discount and one of the best ways to play an end to the war and the reopening of the Middle East, as @vijaythirumalai argues. It is a best-in-class asset-light travel business trading at about 16x earnings with roughly 15% EPS growth and a near-10% free cash flow yield, with limited AI disruption risk, unlike Uber with autonomy. The war has created some overhang. Lower prices would be even better for the long term. x.com 

Marriott and Hilton at 30-40x earnings and all-time highs price in zero impact from the war, even though earnings damage from their Middle East exposure is already done. They face lost sales, weaker forward bookings, delayed room growth and higher build costs in the region. Jet fuel shortages are also cutting flights, with Lufthansa and Aer Lingus announcing cuts through the fall, which should raise fares and reduce travel demand. The market should reprice them rather than wait for earnings. … Show more

Royal Caribbean's latest move looks like diworsification of the already difficult cruise industry, because owning travel assets is a bad model. Booking and royalty-style franchisers such as Marriott and Hilton, which avoid owning those assets, are the better way to play travel. x.com 

Pershing Square USA offers little reason to own it when investors can buy its holdings, such as Hilton, Uber, Meta and Chipotle, directly. Per @StockSavvyShay, Bill Ackman's fund opened 15% below its IPO price. x.com  x.com 

Airbnb is finally getting respect for one of the largest moats around. It is founder-led and innovating, buys back 2-3% of its float a year with a very high free-cash-flow margin, and shows consistent growth across all key and emerging markets. x.com 

Marriott, Hilton and Hyatt hold an edge over Airbnb because users, including this one, dislike Airbnb's lack of customer service and refund terms. Airbnb refunds only 50% on cancellation, while most hotel chains give a full refund up to three days before. Airbnb's profitability remains a concern until it decides to grow up, which it can and likely will. x.com  x.com