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Marriott, Hilton and Hyatt hold an edge over Airbnb because users, including this one, dislike Airbnb's lack of customer service and refund terms. Airbnb refunds only 50% on cancellation, while most hotel chains give a full refund up to three days before. Airbnb's profitability remains a concern until it decides to grow up, which it can and likely will. x.com x.comÂ
Marriott, Hilton and Hyatt are worth owning over Airbnb, because hotel franchising enforces standards and consistency while staying asset-light like Airbnb. Airbnb is too wild west, with questionable cleaning, no gyms or amenities, shady fees and self-cleaning requests, and it is no longer cheaper unless you travel as a large group. Hyatt is liked less than Marriott and Hilton. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Airbnb's long-run outlook looks less promising as its prices have climbed close to those of hotels. @BourseWayne says he barely uses the platform anymore because prices have exploded toward hotel levels, while hotels offer far better service; hotels are now the clear preference. x.com x.comÂ
Airbnb is off-limits because AI agents could disrupt bookings. That view could change if the company adapts, pivots and proves it wrong. x.comÂ
Airbnb may have found its stride, and in a period of rapid change it pays to back the companies that are executing. On the Q2 call, CEO Brian Chesky said the company is innovating faster than it ever has. x.comÂ
Airbnb's turn to American Express suggests it is about to abuse shareholders. American Express is the new Costco, where dying brands go to rot. x.com x.comÂ
Airbnb is losing ground to hotels and other aggregators that compete without hidden fees. Over five years, Marriott returned 173% and Hilton 163% versus 18% for Airbnb, per @Fiscal_ai. x.comÂ
Airbnb faces far less risk from AI shopping agents than online travel agencies or ad-driven e-commerce. It has no real ad revenue or paid placements, so changes in how people use the network matter less, and hosts and guests still want an intermediary for insurance, communications, arbitration and working capital. Individual hosts building their own agent-ready booking systems is a long way off, and many businesses may block agents to protect revenue, limiting what agents can see. x.com x.comÂ
Airbnb is a value trap. The stock has been flat for five years, and signs of the promised revenue acceleration from new products are limited. Now CEO Brian Chesky is starting a new AI lab to develop models while remaining CEO, per @negligible_cap, a side project that shareholders should find annoying. x.com x.comÂ
Airbnb is definitely not undervalued, because growth is slowing and there is likely little margin expansion to offset the revenue deceleration. It trades at 15x NTM EBITDA and 28x NTM EPS, with EBITDA expected to grow at a 12% CAGR and EPS at 19% over the next 2-3 years. The chart would get a little interesting above $144 on the daily, and very interesting if it breaks the downtrend from its all-time high more than five years ago. x.comÂ
Airbnb is finally getting respect for one of the largest moats around. It is founder-led and innovating, buys back 2-3% of its float a year with a very high free-cash-flow margin, and shows consistent growth across all key and emerging markets. x.comÂ
Booking Holdings faces a valid long-term bear case as AI agents could take a share of the 13-18% online travel take rate. Testing Meta's Muse and Instinct for a hotel search showed them drawing on Booking and Expedia inventory for now, but agents could eventually build direct ties with long-tail hotels, better reviews and pre- and post-booking service at lower fees. OTAs' own agents look mediocre and lack users' context. At 13x 2027 EPS it tempts as a contrarian long, but looks too tough. x.com … Show more
