Booking Holdings faces a valid long-term bear case as AI agents could take a share of the 13-18% online travel take rate. Testing Meta's Muse and Instinct for a hotel search showed them drawing on Booking and Expedia inventory for now, but agents could eventually build direct ties with long-tail hotels, better reviews and pre- and post-booking service at lower fees. OTAs' own agents look mediocre and lack users' context. At 13x 2027 EPS it tempts as a contrarian long, but looks too tough. x.com  … Show more

Booking Holdings faces a big risk from Meta's Muse and other AI agents that will find bookings without a middleman. x.com 

Airbnb is off-limits because AI agents could disrupt bookings. That view could change if the company adapts, pivots and proves it wrong. x.com 

Booking Holdings' valuation is quite clearly attractive, though AI agents may roam around and book hotels directly for people. Google I/O raised concerns about most internet names, leaving it unclear whether agentic AI will really hurt Booking. x.com  x.com 

Airbnb is heading toward becoming an AI-native travel platform with inventory nobody else has. Q2 gross booking value rose 16% year over year, with $27.2 billion of bookings, as experiences and services attach to the core and hotels gain traction. As shoppers move to AI-native search, Airbnb's largely non-commodity inventory positions it well, and adding commoditized hotels and car rentals lets it connect trips end to end. x.com  x.com 

Airbnb is losing ground to hotels and other aggregators that compete without hidden fees. Over five years, Marriott returned 173% and Hilton 163% versus 18% for Airbnb, per @Fiscal_ai. x.com 

AI agents may be turning deflationary, which could disrupt Booking, Expedia and other businesses with undifferentiated supply and low switching costs as agents drive industry-wide GMV deflation through price discovery. Per @JosephDevoy, Meta's Muse found and bought an auto policy saving $3,500 a year in minutes. Agents let anyone compare all inventory and book instantly, so friction is falling fast. Per HOTREC, most European hotels already have booking engines that agents could reach directly. … Show more

Airbnb may have found its stride, and in a period of rapid change it pays to back the companies that are executing. On the Q2 call, CEO Brian Chesky said the company is innovating faster than it ever has. x.com 

Airbnb's turn to American Express suggests it is about to abuse shareholders. American Express is the new Costco, where dying brands go to rot. x.com  x.com 

AI agents threaten Booking Holdings' margins. That view could change if the company adapts, pivots and proves otherwise. x.com