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American Express's credit risk keeps its multiple below Visa's or Mastercard's, but that persistently low valuation lets management retire shares steadily. At 16x forward earnings it is not especially cheap by its own history; 28% of shares were retired over ten years. Buying here looks more like owning a steady cash-returning compounder than expecting extraordinary returns. x.comÂ
American Express's solid earnings growth makes it worth continuing to buy and hold for years. Q3 revenue rose 9%, net income 28% and adjusted EPS 13%; American Express also raised its full-year EPS guidance. x.comÂ
Airbnb's long underperformance is ending: it was too expensive at its IPO and has had to work through and digest those expectations, which is about to change. x.comÂ
American Express is the kind of company every investor wants, with dividends per share rising as its share count shrinks. A list of high-quality compounders puts it at 18x earnings with a 3.8% shareholder yield, buying back about 2.5% of its shares a year. x.comÂ
Growing card spending and raised adjusted EPS guidance strengthen American Express's earnings outlook. Billed business rose 8% and adjusted EPS rose 13%; the new $17.60-$17.90 full-year adjusted EPS range implies 14-16% growth. The 31% GAAP EPS rise was helped by one-time tax benefits, while lower credit provisions partly reflect a reserve release despite higher write-offs. x.com x.comÂ
Airbnb may have found its stride, and in a period of rapid change it pays to back the companies that are executing. On the Q2 call, CEO Brian Chesky said the company is innovating faster than it ever has. x.comÂ
Airbnb is losing ground to hotels and other aggregators that compete without hidden fees. Over five years, Marriott returned 173% and Hilton 163% versus 18% for Airbnb, per @Fiscal_ai. x.comÂ
American Express is an incredible business with a strong premium brand, very resilient customers and a model that is hard to copy, strong enough to consider swapping it in for Visa or Mastercard. Demand for Platinum and Gold cards is very strong among people under 35 who love the rewards, bringing in wealthy young customers who can drive growth for a long time. Amex also has room to expand through new partnerships that make its cards accepted everywhere. x.comÂ
Airbnb's cash-flow story should drive a run in 2026-2028 like Uber's, which climbed from $19 to $80 between 2022 and 2024. x.comÂ
Airbnb is a value trap. The stock has been flat for five years, and signs of the promised revenue acceleration from new products are limited. Now CEO Brian Chesky is starting a new AI lab to develop models while remaining CEO, per @negligible_cap, a side project that shareholders should find annoying. x.com x.comÂ