Airbnb may have found its stride, and in a period of rapid change it pays to back the companies that are executing. On the Q2 call, CEO Brian Chesky said the company is innovating faster than it ever has. x.com 

Airbnb is finally getting respect for one of the largest moats around. It is founder-led and innovating, buys back 2-3% of its float a year with a very high free-cash-flow margin, and shows consistent growth across all key and emerging markets. x.com 

Airbnb is a value trap. The stock has been flat for five years, and signs of the promised revenue acceleration from new products are limited. Now CEO Brian Chesky is starting a new AI lab to develop models while remaining CEO, per @negligible_cap, a side project that shareholders should find annoying. x.com  x.com 

Airbnb's cash-flow story should drive a run in 2026-2028 like Uber's, which climbed from $19 to $80 between 2022 and 2024. x.com 

Airbnb is heading toward becoming an AI-native travel platform with inventory nobody else has. Q2 gross booking value rose 16% year over year, with $27.2 billion of bookings, as experiences and services attach to the core and hotels gain traction. As shoppers move to AI-native search, Airbnb's largely non-commodity inventory positions it well, and adding commoditized hotels and car rentals lets it connect trips end to end. x.com  x.com 

Airbnb is definitely not undervalued, because growth is slowing and there is likely little margin expansion to offset the revenue deceleration. It trades at 15x NTM EBITDA and 28x NTM EPS, with EBITDA expected to grow at a 12% CAGR and EPS at 19% over the next 2-3 years. The chart would get a little interesting above $144 on the daily, and very interesting if it breaks the downtrend from its all-time high more than five years ago. x.com 

Booking Holdings faces a valid long-term bear case as AI agents could take a share of the 13-18% online travel take rate. Testing Meta's Muse and Instinct for a hotel search showed them drawing on Booking and Expedia inventory for now, but agents could eventually build direct ties with long-tail hotels, better reviews and pre- and post-booking service at lower fees. OTAs' own agents look mediocre and lack users' context. At 13x 2027 EPS it tempts as a contrarian long, but looks too tough. x.com  … Show more

Booking Holdings and Expedia look like a secular short with capped upside as their take rates come under pressure, though probably not within the next 60 days. As with Salesforce, the argument that they could simply run headless will be raised, and the market knows it from SaaS. Take rates should compress first where barriers to bringing inventory online are lowest; the platforms would then respond with aggressive marketing and margin dilution, extending their growth runway somewhat. x.com 

Airbnb's turn to American Express suggests it is about to abuse shareholders. American Express is the new Costco, where dying brands go to rot. x.com  x.com 

Uber's valuation is out of balance with its fundamental trajectory over the medium term, and the long-term thesis is less convincing than it once was. It became a cash-flow machine sooner than expected, but the past couple of years have been a grind. It is a hold now and a sell if it reaches the top of its technical channel around $100. x.com  x.com