Bill 'Latency Lord' Brennan
Fundamental Growth Investor, B2B/Sector Leaders & Picks-and-Shovels
Airbnb's turn to American Express suggests it is about to abuse shareholders. American Express is the new Costco, where dying brands go to rot. x.com x.comÂ
Airbnb is a value trap. The stock has been flat for five years, and signs of the promised revenue acceleration from new products are limited. Now CEO Brian Chesky is starting a new AI lab to develop models while remaining CEO, per @negligible_cap, a side project that shareholders should find annoying. x.com x.comÂ
Airbnb faces far less risk from AI shopping agents than online travel agencies or ad-driven e-commerce. It has no real ad revenue or paid placements, so changes in how people use the network matter less, and hosts and guests still want an intermediary for insurance, communications, arbitration and working capital. Individual hosts building their own agent-ready booking systems is a long way off, and many businesses may block agents to protect revenue, limiting what agents can see. x.com x.comÂ
Airbnb is off-limits because AI agents could disrupt bookings. That view could change if the company adapts, pivots and proves it wrong. x.comÂ
Airbnb's long-run outlook looks less promising as its prices have climbed close to those of hotels. @BourseWayne says he barely uses the platform anymore because prices have exploded toward hotel levels, while hotels offer far better service; hotels are now the clear preference. x.com x.comÂ
Airbnb may have found its stride, and in a period of rapid change it pays to back the companies that are executing. On the Q2 call, CEO Brian Chesky said the company is innovating faster than it ever has. x.comÂ
Marriott, Hilton and Hyatt hold an edge over Airbnb because users, including this one, dislike Airbnb's lack of customer service and refund terms. Airbnb refunds only 50% on cancellation, while most hotel chains give a full refund up to three days before. Airbnb's profitability remains a concern until it decides to grow up, which it can and likely will. x.com x.comÂ
Booking Holdings faces a valid long-term bear case as AI agents could take a share of the 13-18% online travel take rate. Testing Meta's Muse and Instinct for a hotel search showed them drawing on Booking and Expedia inventory for now, but agents could eventually build direct ties with long-tail hotels, better reviews and pre- and post-booking service at lower fees. OTAs' own agents look mediocre and lack users' context. At 13x 2027 EPS it tempts as a contrarian long, but looks too tough. x.com … Show more
Airbnb is heading toward becoming an AI-native travel platform with inventory nobody else has. Q2 gross booking value rose 16% year over year, with $27.2 billion of bookings, as experiences and services attach to the core and hotels gain traction. As shoppers move to AI-native search, Airbnb's largely non-commodity inventory positions it well, and adding commoditized hotels and car rentals lets it connect trips end to end. x.com x.comÂ
Airbnb is definitely not undervalued, because growth is slowing and there is likely little margin expansion to offset the revenue deceleration. It trades at 15x NTM EBITDA and 28x NTM EPS, with EBITDA expected to grow at a 12% CAGR and EPS at 19% over the next 2-3 years. The chart would get a little interesting above $144 on the daily, and very interesting if it breaks the downtrend from its all-time high more than five years ago. x.comÂ