Marriott and Hilton are toll booths on a global travel boom, capturing most new hotel growth without owning hotels. Royalties on 19k hotels need near-zero capex, and loyalty programs, 20-30-year contracts and lenders' demand for a major brand flag drive 4-7% unit growth against 1-2% supply. Hilton's fees, about 95% of EBITDA, rose from $814M in 2009 to an estimated $3.7B in 2026, a 10% CAGR on minimal capital. Buybacks and operating leverage compound EPS 11-14%. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Marriott International is still inefficiently priced and largely ignored, making it one of the highest-conviction buys right now. It has shown textbook accumulation patterns all year and broke cleanly out of a recently outlined weekly setup. It should strengthen further along with consumer discretionary stocks and the broader S&P 500. x.com 

Hilton is priced as if the Middle East disruption will have no lasting effect, which is a big leap of faith. The stock is near its all-time high at over 30x 2027 earnings, close to 40x including debt. The Middle East likely provides 5-7% of revenue and an outsized share of its development pipeline, while oil's jet fuel impact and regional travel demand could suffer for years after the past six months. x.com