Marriott and Hilton are toll booths on a global travel boom, capturing most new hotel growth without owning hotels. Royalties on 19k hotels need near-zero capex, and loyalty programs, 20-30-year contracts and lenders' demand for a major brand flag drive 4-7% unit growth against 1-2% supply. Hilton's fees, about 95% of EBITDA, rose from $814M in 2009 to an estimated $3.7B in 2026, a 10% CAGR on minimal capital. Buybacks and operating leverage compound EPS 11-14%. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Asset-light businesses that take a cut of every transaction have one of the most powerful business models, pairing low capex and high margins with steady cash flow from royalties and fees. That is the basis for a portfolio of McDonald's, Uber, Texas Pacific Land, Visa, Restaurant Brands International, Marriott, Franco-Nevada, CME Group and Arm, built to test whether such businesses can outperform the market. x.com 

Marriott and Hilton at 30-40x earnings and all-time highs price in zero impact from the war, even though earnings damage from their Middle East exposure is already done. They face lost sales, weaker forward bookings, delayed room growth and higher build costs in the region. Jet fuel shortages are also cutting flights, with Lufthansa and Aer Lingus announcing cuts through the fall, which should raise fares and reduce travel demand. The market should reprice them rather than wait for earnings. … Show more

Ryman Hospitality Properties is a wide-moat REIT because its scale and specialization in group hospitality cannot be duplicated. It owns five of the seven largest non-gaming US convention hotels, giving steadier occupancy through cycles, and 70% of Opry Entertainment, including the Grand Ole Opry. Marriott manages its Gaylord resorts and feeds demand through its loyalty program. Shares trade at 10.6x with a well-covered 5.2% yield, and the dividend has more than recovered from its COVID cut. … Show more

US equities are in a remarkably strong earnings environment, with S&P 500 sales and earnings revisions for 2027 surging. Markups on equity investments don't explain it, since sales wouldn't reflect them and these are 2027 estimates. Breadth is also fairly strong, so stripping out the mega caps, as @EcoDogFanJM suggests, isn't warranted. x.com  x.com 

US consumer cyclicals and broad market breadth look set to gain as Q2 bank results refute the K-shaped consumer doom thesis. Card spending rose 9% to 12% at JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citi and Wells Fargo while credit quality improved: JPMorgan's card net charge-off rate fell to 3.34% from 3.47% and it cut full-year guidance, and Wells Fargo's credit-loss provision fell 9%. With rate tailwinds and falling gas, retail, transports, regional banks and equal-weight stocks signal a cyclical rotation. … Show more

Booking Holdings is a great business at a nice discount and one of the best ways to play an end to the war and the reopening of the Middle East, as @vijaythirumalai argues. It is a best-in-class asset-light travel business trading at about 16x earnings with roughly 15% EPS growth and a near-10% free cash flow yield, with limited AI disruption risk, unlike Uber with autonomy. The war has created some overhang. Lower prices would be even better for the long term. x.com 

Disney is a dog with fleas. Absurdly high theme-park prices face demand elasticity as a weakening consumer in a K-shaped economy pulls back. Its movie lineup is dated, with live-action Moana joining Snow White as box-office bombs; its balance sheet carries heavy debt from poorly conceived acquisitions that could curb park spending; and AI threatens several businesses. There is a price for everything: below $90, reward versus risk turns favorable. x.com  x.com 

Consumer discretionary stocks such as durable goods, brokerages and travel are deeply overpriced, more so each day the energy shock persists. The energy market is moving from oversupply into shortage, eroding buying power, and much of the marginal growth in compute spending depends on loose financial conditions. Helium and gas shortages could also halt production in Taiwan. x.com