People Inc. should unlock value as Barry Diller cuts overhead and sells everything except the core publisher and the MGM stake. Turo, Vivian, the Daily Beast and the IAC Building are for sale, and an unexpected $189 million LP fund stake sale shows Diller trimming fat. It will keep buying MGM, which trades near 3x lease-adjusted EBITDA, and has buybacks covering about 16% of float. Google's AI Overviews cut its traffic uncompensated, but a material Google settlement is expected by next year. … Show more

Wynn Resorts is undervalued against its luxury assets and cash generation, with a potentially transformational UAE resort ahead. Its $7.6B market cap compares with $2.3B of LTM adjusted property EBITDAR and over $2B of cash and investments. Wynn Al Marjan Island, opening September 2027, targets about $345M of steady-state EBITDAR, roughly 15% of today's base, in a market with little gaming competition. Risks are heavy debt, cyclical gaming, Macau regulation and UAE execution. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

MGM Resorts looks due for a bounce after falling nine weeks in a row, something it has done only once in 38 years, at the financial-crisis lows, and never ten. It has retraced much of the takeover bid from a couple of months ago and now trades about 13% below the $48.30 offer price, with RSI getting oversold. A higher bid is even possible. x.com 

Fiserv will likely stagnate for years because it cannot grow its way out of rising debt. It generates about $4B of free cash flow but has raised long-term debt to $28B to sustain aggressive buybacks, while growth was barely above inflation last year and totaled -0.5% over the past three quarters. A new CEO and new projects mean it is not going to zero, but it is far less attractive than @KrisPatel99's case for it as a deleveraging compounder. x.com 

Disney is a dog with fleas. Absurdly high theme-park prices face demand elasticity as a weakening consumer in a K-shaped economy pulls back. Its movie lineup is dated, with live-action Moana joining Snow White as box-office bombs; its balance sheet carries heavy debt from poorly conceived acquisitions that could curb park spending; and AI threatens several businesses. There is a price for everything: below $90, reward versus risk turns favorable. x.com  x.com 

MGM Resorts could respond to a dropped buyout bid with an aggressive buyback before the market sizes its Japan opportunity. The stock fell after the buyout bid was withdrawn, though the deal never made much sense. A $2 billion buyback, about 20-25% of shares outstanding, would not be surprising and could move the needle. x.com 

Charter is drowning in debt, and that leverage outweighs its cash-flow appeal. @k3ithmccullough puts Charter at a 25% free-cash-flow yield by 2028. The most bullish point is that capex is expected to come down, but on a quick look the heavy debt load makes the stock look very poor. x.com 

Consumer-facing stocks remain vulnerable as even middle and upper-middle income shoppers pull back. Dave & Buster's fell 15% on ongoing "entertainment weakness", dragging the sector including Texas Roadhouse. Dollar General said at a Goldman conference that customers across income cohorts are somewhat distressed, with middle to upper-middle shoppers acting like lower-income ones. Diesel near $7 and gasoline near $4.50 add about $700M a day in fuel costs versus a year ago. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Barry Diller's non-binding ~$48-a-share offer for MGM Resorts via People Inc. is likely meant to put the assets in play and force a revaluation of a business Diller has repeatedly called significantly undervalued. Suvretta Capital puts base-case value near $60 a share on current assets alone, excluding the Osaka casino and Dubai licence optionality. The board, reviewing the offer, which has no expiry, is expected to reject it; the stock could then fall toward its pre-bid level near $37. x.com 

TransDigm's heavy debt load is a massive risk if anything goes wrong. It is levered over 5x EBITDA on the assumption it can grow organic EBITDA 4-6% forever without political pushback. Shareholders such as @PythiaR calling the debt an asset is a sign of extreme sentiment, and the market is underwriting 10 to 20 years out. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com