Travis Hoium
Motley Fool Analyst, Author of Asymmetric Investing
MGM Resorts could respond to a dropped buyout bid with an aggressive buyback before the market sizes its Japan opportunity. The stock fell after the buyout bid was withdrawn, though the deal never made much sense. A $2 billion buyback, about 20-25% of shares outstanding, would not be surprising and could move the needle. x.com
MGM Resorts generates enough free cash flow to buy back about 15% of its shares each year, with major tailwinds ahead. Macau gaming revenue is up 14.3% year to date as the COVID recovery gains momentum, online gaming is reaching an inflection point, and MGM Japan, opening in 2030, may be the most profitable casino in the world, providing over $1 billion of cash flow from day one. x.com
MGM Resorts looks due for a bounce after falling nine weeks in a row, something it has done only once in 38 years, at the financial-crisis lows, and never ten. It has retraced much of the takeover bid from a couple of months ago and now trades about 13% below the $48.30 offer price, with RSI getting oversold. A higher bid is even possible. x.com
Barry Diller's non-binding ~$48-a-share offer for MGM Resorts via People Inc. is likely meant to put the assets in play and force a revaluation of a business Diller has repeatedly called significantly undervalued. Suvretta Capital puts base-case value near $60 a share on current assets alone, excluding the Osaka casino and Dubai licence optionality. The board, reviewing the offer, which has no expiry, is expected to reject it; the stock could then fall toward its pre-bid level near $37. x.com
MGM Resorts' debt and operating leverage make its low free-cash-flow yield risky. A recession would make the situation very bad even if conditions otherwise look fine, and Diller is following the Liberty levered-buyback model. x.com x.com x.com
People Inc. should unlock value as Barry Diller cuts overhead and sells everything except the core publisher and the MGM stake. Turo, Vivian, the Daily Beast and the IAC Building are for sale, and an unexpected $189 million LP fund stake sale shows Diller trimming fat. It will keep buying MGM, which trades near 3x lease-adjusted EBITDA, and has buybacks covering about 16% of float. Google's AI Overviews cut its traffic uncompensated, but a material Google settlement is expected by next year. … Show more
Nvidia's expanded buyback signals confidence: if no one else buys the stock, Nvidia will. The board added $150 billion of authorization, bringing the remaining total to $235 billion, which Nvidia expects to complete by the end of fiscal 2028, more than 4% of its shares within about a year. The scale of the program reassures the market. x.com
Disney is a far better buy than MGM Resorts: Disney is a very inexpensive stock with irreplaceable assets, and Toy Story 5 is set to crush it for the company. x.com
Wynn Resorts is undervalued against its luxury assets and cash generation, with a potentially transformational UAE resort ahead. Its $7.6B market cap compares with $2.3B of LTM adjusted property EBITDAR and over $2B of cash and investments. Wynn Al Marjan Island, opening September 2027, targets about $345M of steady-state EBITDAR, roughly 15% of today's base, in a market with little gaming competition. Risks are heavy debt, cyclical gaming, Macau regulation and UAE execution. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Red Rock Resorts may be worth a bet off the Las Vegas Strip, with consensus forecasting 69% free cash flow growth in 2027 and 2028. Brothers Frank and Lorenzo Fertitta are its largest beneficial owners, with 90.3% combined voting power, so the founding family remains firmly in control. x.com x.com
Kioxia is very shareholder friendly at about 4x earnings, choosing to buy back stock rather than spend on capex. Per @jukan05, it plans to repurchase up to 30 million shares, 5.5% of shares outstanding, for up to ¥800 billion between August 3 and October 30, alongside April-September operating profit guidance of ¥3.16 trillion and a 3-for-1 split. A miss against expectations would matter more if the stock were still at ¥100,000 rather than near ¥49,000. x.com x.com
Salesforce's $25 billion accelerated share repurchase, starting Monday, March 16, and syndicated out over months, should provide at least a short-term floor for the stock. x.com
