Alva - Your AI Investing Agent

Divergent Capital

Private Investor & Writer, Capital-Light Businesses & Special Situations

4 Aug, 22:02Latest

People Inc. should unlock value as Barry Diller cuts overhead and sells everything except the core publisher and the MGM stake. Turo, Vivian, the Daily Beast and the IAC Building are for sale, and an unexpected $189 million LP fund stake sale shows Diller trimming fat. It will keep buying MGM, which trades near 3x lease-adjusted EBITDA, and has buybacks covering about 16% of float. Google's AI Overviews cut its traffic uncompensated, but a material Google settlement is expected by next year. x.com

PPLI

29 Jun, 04:44

People Inc.'s market cap is fully covered by its roughly 26% MGM stake, worth about $3.34 billion, so the rest of the business is valued at practically nothing. That includes Barry Diller's owner-operator turnaround, a publisher of 40-plus brands such as PEOPLE and Allrecipes, a 33% Turo stake carried at about $408 million, and its antitrust claim against Google. Diller's roughly $48 MGM bid looks aimed at putting assets in play; Suvretta values MGM at about $60 a share. x.com

PPLI

The Long Investor

Airline Captain & Investment Analyst, Technical/Fundamental Analysis

28 Oct

GOOG

Alphabet's businesses beyond search are why it will lead the real AI boom. Google Cloud, DeepMind and Waymo broaden its reach, and its $900 million SpaceX investment is now worth $85 billion. Fear emerging as the shares fall is an opportunity; a decline toward the buy zone is welcome, even as Q3 capex has taken a large hit out of free cash flow. x.com x.com x.com x.com

Stefan Waldhauser

Tech Investor, Co-Founder of StocksGuide

28 Sep

PPLI

People Inc. shareholders should get a high premium if MGM Resorts pursues a takeover. People Inc. first offered $48.30 a share for MGM, which rejected it; now, per the Wall Street Journal, MGM is considering acquiring People Inc. itself. Barry Diller's bid set a clever price anchor for his life's work, making a high premium the only logical outcome. x.com

LongGameEquity

Long-Term Investor, AI & Software

29 Oct

GOOG

Alphabet's core Search growth is slowing while AI spending surges, making the selloff look deserved despite fast Cloud growth. Search growth fell from 19% to 17% to 12% over three quarters; Search now represents just under half of revenue. The stock could fall to $250, though Amazon is the preferred buy. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

Daniel

Self-Directed Investor, YouTube Investing Creator

29 Oct

GOOGL

Alphabet's slowing Search growth and expected negative free cash flow are an overreaction because its next AI monetization wave and infrastructure buildout support long-term growth. AI Mode ads are expanding internationally, Gemini has passed 1 billion users without ads, and Google is accepting lower Cloud margins to secure third-party compute. Analysts expect FCF to recover sharply in 2028 as AI investments generate cash. x.com x.com x.com

Trevor Scott

Founder & Portfolio Manager of Tidefall Capital Management

26 Oct

MGM

MGM Resorts' debt and operating leverage make its low free-cash-flow yield risky. A recession would make the situation very bad even if conditions otherwise look fine, and Diller is following the Liberty levered-buyback model. x.com x.com x.com

Jordan

Long-Term Stock Investor, Compounding & Portfolio Construction

28 Oct

GOOG

Alphabet offers attractive risk/reward because its earlier equity raise suppressed the shares despite strong growth. The $80B-plus raise should suffice for now; another next year is uncertain. Search grew 17% in the prior results, while cloud revenue more than doubled in the latest. Investment losses, not the business, hit EPS; weaker free cash flow puts investors off. A search slowdown would be a warning flag, though Gemini and other businesses could soften the blow. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more

Travis Hoium

Motley Fool Analyst, Author of Asymmetric Investing

24 Sep

MGM

MGM Resorts could respond to a dropped buyout bid with an aggressive buyback before the market sizes its Japan opportunity. The stock fell after the buyout bid was withdrawn, though the deal never made much sense. A $2 billion buyback, about 20-25% of shares outstanding, would not be surprising and could move the needle. x.com

KawzInvests

Co-Author of Asymmetrical Bets, Photonics/Optical Cycle, AI/Defense/Space

26 Jul

RDDT

Reddit's selloff over a possible end to its Google AI data deal is overdone, because Reddit owns content AI models depend on and has leverage to win usage-based pricing. Per WSJ, the roughly $60M-a-year contract has not been cancelled; it is 1.4% of 2026 consensus revenue, yet $3B of value was erased. Reddit ranks at or near the top of AI citation studies, and a UK CMA ruling lets it withhold training data while keeping search referrals. The July 30 earnings should clarify the renewal. x.com … Show more

Michael Sikand

Investor, Autopilot Portfolio, Founder of Sikand Media

27 Jul

RDDT

Reddit's Google AI contract will likely be renewed on richer terms, making the sell-off over it senseless. In a study of 30M sources across ChatGPT, Gemini, Perplexity and AI Overviews, Reddit was the single most cited domain, which gives it leverage in the renewal. The stock has nearly made back the drop. x.com

Finn Stockinger

Equity Analyst & Investor, Technology Research

31 Jul

RDDT

Reddit's post-earnings selloff is an overreaction, as the market treats it like a 2010s media publisher rather than an AI data utility. If Google's AI Overviews surface Reddit answers instead of sending clicks, that strengthens Reddit's leverage by proving LLMs cannot work without its 26B+ posts of human consensus. In-app retention is up 50% year over year, so the SEO-dependency panic is overstated. Flat licensing deals are phase one; the endgame is usage-based pricing for real-time AI context. … Show more

Ask Alva about this thesis

Ask Alva about this thesis