Crossroads
Retail Investor, YouTube Investing Creator
Fiserv will likely stagnate for years because it cannot grow its way out of rising debt. It generates about $4B of free cash flow but has raised long-term debt to $28B to sustain aggressive buybacks, while growth was barely above inflation last year and totaled -0.5% over the past three quarters. A new CEO and new projects mean it is not going to zero, but it is far less attractive than @KrisPatel99's case for it as a deleveraging compounder. x.comÂ
Fiserv's culture problems look harder to fix after CEO Mike Lyons, seen as its savior, departed. Culture issues are difficult to solve, and buybacks are not enough to justify owning the stock. x.comÂ
MGM Resorts' debt and operating leverage make its low free-cash-flow yield risky. A recession would make the situation very bad even if conditions otherwise look fine, and Diller is following the Liberty levered-buyback model. x.com x.com x.comÂ
FICO now offers a negatively skewed payoff, with bounded upside and open-ended downside, despite exceptional business economics. Debt-funded buybacks in Q2'26 added fragility, and mortgage scores increasingly dominate operating income amid rising competition and possible adverse regulation of GSE-mandated scores. Unscathed, it could re-rate toward its prior multiple, arguably lower; if VantageScore gains traction, new pricing fails or regulators impair pricing power, it could fall significantly. … Show more
Paycom's buyback of 20-25% of its float over the past year makes little sense when ruthless AI implementation is everything and its cost of capital is rising sharply. The stock is down 55% over five years despite strong cash flow, it is not at an entry point, and management has yet to prove itself. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Shift4 is too cheap at these levels, essentially a private-equity-style vehicle in public markets that is hard to appreciate but runs a good playbook; Jared Isaacman is not selling out down here. Its Global Blue acquisition was poorly timed as US-Iran tensions crush international travel, Fiserv's turmoil hit payments, and AI angst weighs on software. Public investors can also choose easier-to-model stories with cleaner KPIs and capital structures. x.comÂ
Oracle's growth is being funded at a staggering cost, making it one to stay away from into Thursday's earnings. FY2026 growth was impressive: revenue $67.4B (+17%), cloud infrastructure $18.1B (+77%), operating cash flow $32B (+54%) and a $638B backlog of remaining performance obligations. But $130B of debt, $27B of lease liabilities, huge data-centre commitments and rising capex left free cash flow at -$23.7B and worsening fast. Not a disaster; the test is capex and backlog turning into cash. … Show more
Charter is drowning in debt, and that leverage outweighs its cash-flow appeal. @k3ithmccullough puts Charter at a 25% free-cash-flow yield by 2028. The most bullish point is that capex is expected to come down, but on a quick look the heavy debt load makes the stock look very poor. x.comÂ
