Fair Isaac looks more reasonable after a price reset but is now a slower compounder, still not a buy. FHFA has opened the door to VantageScore, which will chip away some share and end easy 10-15% annual price hikes, cutting earnings growth to the mid-teens from the twenties. The main concern remains management funding buybacks with debt at record multiples, reducing flexibility. If it slows the leverage, shareholders could still do fine, though more grinding than explosive. x.com 

Pulte's move to treat VantageScore on par with FICO loosens how mortgage credit is priced rather than making homes more affordable. Pulte claims it saves $1,600 per Rocket closing, yet the score fee gap is about $9; the real change is VantageScore 4.0 running up to 20 points higher. That may push home prices up. VantageScore was never tested through the financial crisis or for negative convexity, which MBS buyers must know, so they are expected to push back. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Fair Isaac's moat has narrowed but not disappeared, so the selloff over VantageScore may be an opportunity. FHFA Director Bill Pulte let all Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac lenders use VantageScore 4.0, ending FICO's effective mortgage monopoly, and floated a cheaper bi-merge model. That brings a lower-cost rival and threatens pricing power. But FICO is deeply embedded in lender systems, underwriting, securitizations and decades of data. It works only if valuation leaves a margin of safety. x.com 

FICO no longer merits ownership because its business model, once arguably the best in the world, has made too many enemies and may have gotten too greedy with pricing. x.com 

FICO is being disrupted, though not dying, and its moat is more fragile than it looks. Most banks' own scoring models are equal to or better than FICO's and are used alongside it. FICO's real moat is the level playing field its score gives the institutional and resale mortgage markets, so it is truly over for FICO if Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac switch to VantageScore. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Fair Isaac looks insanely cheap at its lowest P/E in well over a decade, with fundamentals that still look beautiful. Per @stock_analysisx, the derating follows the US government's move to end FICO's mortgage scoring monopoly, leaving the stock at its lowest P/E since 2013. x.com  x.com 

FICO's management may think the stock is undervalued, but it needs to rein in its debt soon. x.com 

Fair Isaac is terminally a sub-20 P/E business now that its mortgage monopoly faces a price war. Per @qualityequities, regulators cleared the cheaper VantageScore for mortgages, and the credit bureaus are aggressively discounting it to take share, undercutting the pricing power investors valued FICO for. x.com 

The shift to bi-merge credit reports may not shrink Fair Isaac's profit pool: it makes pulling both scores more economical for lenders, and credit-file gaming could shift more economics to FICO as it moves to alternative pricing. FICO can earn the same whether its score is used upfront or later in origination; what matters is how many funded loans avoid FICO entirely and what it earns on retained usage. x.com  x.com 

Fair Isaac's scoring moat is eroding after the FHFA said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will move to a unified mortgage pricing grid that places VantageScore alongside Classic FICO. VantageScore borrowers will reach the top pricing tier at 780+, the same threshold as FICO, eliminating their previous 20-point disadvantage. As @oguzerkan notes, even after a 60% drop this year the stock still trades at 19x earnings, a reminder never to overpay for quality. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com