Bill 'Latency Lord' Brennan
Fundamental Growth Investor, B2B/Sector Leaders & Picks-and-Shovels
Fair Isaac is terminally a sub-20 P/E business now that its mortgage monopoly faces a price war. Per @qualityequities, regulators cleared the cheaper VantageScore for mortgages, and the credit bureaus are aggressively discounting it to take share, undercutting the pricing power investors valued FICO for. x.comÂ
Pulte's move to treat VantageScore on par with FICO loosens how mortgage credit is priced rather than making homes more affordable. Pulte claims it saves $1,600 per Rocket closing, yet the score fee gap is about $9; the real change is VantageScore 4.0 running up to 20 points higher. That may push home prices up. VantageScore was never tested through the financial crisis or for negative convexity, which MBS buyers must know, so they are expected to push back. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Fair Isaac's scoring moat is eroding after the FHFA said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will move to a unified mortgage pricing grid that places VantageScore alongside Classic FICO. VantageScore borrowers will reach the top pricing tier at 780+, the same threshold as FICO, eliminating their previous 20-point disadvantage. As @oguzerkan notes, even after a 60% drop this year the stock still trades at 19x earnings, a reminder never to overpay for quality. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Fair Isaac looks insanely cheap at its lowest P/E in well over a decade, with fundamentals that still look beautiful. Per @stock_analysisx, the derating follows the US government's move to end FICO's mortgage scoring monopoly, leaving the stock at its lowest P/E since 2013. x.com x.comÂ
FICO is being disrupted, though not dying, and its moat is more fragile than it looks. Most banks' own scoring models are equal to or better than FICO's and are used alongside it. FICO's real moat is the level playing field its score gives the institutional and resale mortgage markets, so it is truly over for FICO if Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac switch to VantageScore. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Fair Isaac's moat has shrunk to a puddle after one pricing-grid change. Per @wallstengine, FHFA said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will move to one mortgage pricing grid that puts VantageScore alongside Classic FICO, with VantageScore borrowers reaching the top band at 780+, the same as FICO, giving lenders a cheaper alternative on the same framework. The shares fell 18%. x.comÂ
The shift to bi-merge credit reports may not shrink Fair Isaac's profit pool: it makes pulling both scores more economical for lenders, and credit-file gaming could shift more economics to FICO as it moves to alternative pricing. FICO can earn the same whether its score is used upfront or later in origination; what matters is how many funded loans avoid FICO entirely and what it earns on retained usage. x.com x.comÂ
Fair Isaac looks more reasonable after a price reset but is now a slower compounder, still not a buy. FHFA has opened the door to VantageScore, which will chip away some share and end easy 10-15% annual price hikes, cutting earnings growth to the mid-teens from the twenties. The main concern remains management funding buybacks with debt at record multiples, reducing flexibility. If it slows the leverage, shareholders could still do fine, though more grinding than explosive. x.comÂ
Fair Isaac's moat is eroding as mortgage lenders gain a cheaper alternative on equal terms. Per Wall St Engine, FHFA said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will move to one pricing grid that puts VantageScore alongside Classic FICO, removing VantageScore's 20-point disadvantage so its borrowers also reach the top band at 780+. VantageScore costs about $0.99 per score versus roughly $10 for FICO. x.comÂ
FICO is trading at its lowest valuation of the decade, about 13x forward earnings for what is essentially a duopoly, which is attractive. @thejmkane counters that it is no longer really a monopoly, but a duopoly at 13x is not so bad. x.com x.comÂ
FICO now offers a negatively skewed payoff, with bounded upside and open-ended downside, despite exceptional business economics. Debt-funded buybacks in Q2'26 added fragility, and mortgage scores increasingly dominate operating income amid rising competition and possible adverse regulation of GSE-mandated scores. Unscathed, it could re-rate toward its prior multiple, arguably lower; if VantageScore gains traction, new pricing fails or regulators impair pricing power, it could fall significantly. … Show more
