Heisenberg
Stock Chartist, Long/Short Ideas
Microsoft's 50% Azure growth and prospect of positive cash flow in 2027 make the stock look bulletproof. Headcount cuts, lower Anthropic spend, a better Copilot routed to cheaper tokens, and coming proprietary chips and model usage add to the case. It should get Apple's multiple plus recognition for cybersecurity. x.com x.comÂ
Microsoft's OpenAI exposure is a very good reason to keep it alongside Anthropic exposure through Alphabet and Amazon. The prior thought of reducing or exiting Microsoft has given way to a tentative hold, with no plans to add for now. x.comÂ
Microsoft's delivery delays are affecting earnings, making other sources of returns look safer now. x.comÂ
Microsoft is probably the most entrenched software name in the market, making it the lower-risk way to bet against widespread bearishness on software. It should rebound, though the timing is unclear and beside the point; fundamentals several years out should be great. x.comÂ
AI's threat to incumbent tech makes SpaceX the preferred investment for the next decade. AI has begun taking business from Google, with Amazon and Apple next; Microsoft's 27% workforce reduction program signals desperation. x.comÂ
Microsoft's position is the most crowded among the Magnificent Seven, and fund flows are against it as funds sell those stocks to reserve cash for Anthropic's IPO. It faded despite an excellent earnings report. x.comÂ
Never bet against Microsoft: in its history it has never been a poor capital allocator, and despite small mistakes it is an amazing corporate investor. The same holds for Google, despite criticism quoted by @firstadopter that supplying OpenAI and Anthropic with compute mortgages its future. x.comÂ
Microsoft stands out for capital discipline amid the AI capex frenzy, and could swing back up while Google may trend down. Apple, with its own capital discipline, is set to scoop up cheaply whichever companies end up holding the most debt from this capex cycle. x.com x.comÂ
Microsoft faces AI disruption that could erode its software moat and compress its high multiple. Chris Hohn, the best stock picker ever and not one to move lightly, cut Microsoft from 10% to 1% of his portfolio, about $8 billion, citing AI disruption. The question that matters is whether a business can be disrupted: when code becomes a commodity the moat erodes, and multiple compression from a high base does severe damage. x.comÂ
Microsoft's record long-term institutional accumulation was the real signal: the largest monthly, weekly and daily volumes ever built up right at the bottom, and the expected short-term flush never came, not even a 10% decline. Short-term bearish speculation was a waste of time. x.com x.comÂ