Heisenberg
Stock Chartist, Long/Short Ideas
ARK Innovation ETF is unlikely to ever regain its Covid highs relative to the Nasdaq 100. It just hit a fresh 52-week low against the Nasdaq 100 and is nearing an all-time relative low, while carrying one of the highest ETF expense ratios. Cathie Wood day-trades names in the fund and has badly underperformed the index for years while collecting hundreds of millions in fees. x.comÂ
ARK Innovation is a poor bet because Cathie Wood's track record is horrible and she did not see AI coming, so there is little reason to believe she can see around the next corner. Investors still put a net $2.5B into the fund in a week. x.comÂ
ARK Innovation is the biggest scam in finance, collecting management fees whether or not its bets work. Per @NoLimitGains, the fund is down 45% on its Cerebras position in one month and has lost over $40 million on SpaceX. x.comÂ
Innovation stocks no longer move inversely to Treasury yields, and that is the bull case. After the 2022 inflation shock, yields and these stocks have climbed together because yields are being pushed up by stronger real growth, AI capex, fiscal supply and fading recession fears, the same forces that lift disruptors' expected cash flows. The risk is a shift to deficits plus slowing growth, which would bring the old inverse correlation back immediately. x.com x.comÂ
ARK Genomic Revolution ETF holds several of 2026's top-performing stocks as its biggest positions. The signal to take profits will be when CNBC features Cathie Wood on TV, likely within one to two months, since CNBC tends to ring the bell at the top. x.comÂ
ARK Innovation ETF has investors paying to lose money: as @jbulltard1 notes, it lost ground even while innovative growth stocks rallied nonstop. A team of roughly 50 people still underperforms the S&P 500, and a random person on the street is probably a better stock picker than analysts relying on Monte Carlo simulations. @jbulltard1 also points out that its chief futurist, Brett Winton, sold Nvidia at around $18 and remains in the role. x.com x.com x.comÂ
ARK Innovation ETF's bull case is drawing whale support, with $4M of bullish options flow rolling July $75 calls up and out to September $82 calls. Bulls got confirmation from a monthly tweezer off support, though hedgers remain active and the low now sits 14% away, so this is not a spot to chase. x.com x.comÂ
ARK Genomic Revolution ETF has incredibly high short interest, setting up a possible squeeze. If days to cover rises above 8, the move could get wild. x.comÂ
The Nasdaq 100 looks set for a persistent uptrend after hitting a new record, which favors 3x leveraged exposure through TQQQ. After three choppy months, funds are refocusing on what matters while positioning and sentiment remain lopsided and weak, making a rise likelier than more chop and possibly another major bull run. Leveraged ETFs compound in steady uptrends but lose to friction in chop, as TQQQ's 136% gain against QQQ's 35% in April-May showed. Gulf tensions still need to end. x.com x.comÂ
Shorting the Nasdaq-100 looks unwise here. The McClellan Oscillator is at levels not seen since the tariff lows, yet with oil and yields surging the index sits inches from all-time highs. Good news on top of PCE, such as from Micron or the jobs report, could push it higher. x.comÂ
The Nasdaq 100's options structure remains bullish, with QQQ in positive gamma and gamma extending up toward 760. The 740-750 zone, traded repeatedly for months, is where positions are being digested, so a breakout may take time; as long as 740 holds, this is high-level consolidation. Volatility sellers dominate, keeping the VIX pinned near 15, and if spikes toward 16-20 keep getting sold, the backdrop for risk assets is unchanged; the VIX could reach 13 in October. x.comÂ
