PhotonBull
Equity Researcher, Co-Runner of Retail Club
ARK Innovation ETF is unlikely to ever regain its Covid highs relative to the Nasdaq 100. It just hit a fresh 52-week low against the Nasdaq 100 and is nearing an all-time relative low, while carrying one of the highest ETF expense ratios. Cathie Wood day-trades names in the fund and has badly underperformed the index for years while collecting hundreds of millions in fees. x.comÂ
ARK Innovation is a poor bet because Cathie Wood's track record is horrible and she did not see AI coming, so there is little reason to believe she can see around the next corner. Investors still put a net $2.5B into the fund in a week. x.comÂ
ARK Innovation ETF's bull case is drawing whale support, with $4M of bullish options flow rolling July $75 calls up and out to September $82 calls. Bulls got confirmation from a monthly tweezer off support, though hedgers remain active and the low now sits 14% away, so this is not a spot to chase. x.com x.comÂ
ARK Innovation ETF has investors paying to lose money: as @jbulltard1 notes, it lost ground even while innovative growth stocks rallied nonstop. A team of roughly 50 people still underperforms the S&P 500, and a random person on the street is probably a better stock picker than analysts relying on Monte Carlo simulations. @jbulltard1 also points out that its chief futurist, Brett Winton, sold Nvidia at around $18 and remains in the role. x.com x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's competitive threat makes AST SpaceMobile less attractive at these levels than SpaceX and Rocket Lab. AST SpaceMobile's weekly chart shows a downtrend and strong outflows, though the stock is near marked support. x.comÂ
SpaceX's heavy spending and risk of further borrowing make its sharp stock rally hard to square with weakening debt and a huge lock-up expiration ahead. Bloomberg reports its bonds weakened and credit spreads widened despite earnings above estimates. Talk of a potential Tesla acquisition is also in the air. x.comÂ
Other space stocks look less attractive as liquidity concentrates in SpaceX. StonkChris expects most to face a tougher long-term outlook, though some may still win; the visible flow of liquidity into one name supports that concern. x.comÂ
SpaceX at 100 times sales is not a winning entry: buyers at $225 last week are already suffering. x.comÂ
SpaceX remains unattractive: its reported $8 billion spectrum deal covers only a tiny fraction of what a nationwide wireless network would require, even with expensive satellites that last just five years. x.comÂ
SpaceX buying Grain's spectrum is not bullish for AST SpaceMobile, with only secondary angles that read positively. SpaceX has spent roughly $26 billion on spectrum, so AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile should spend to defend their moat instead of downplaying Musk; letting Grain buy spectrum only to flip it to SpaceX likely ranks among the most self-destructive management moves ever. AST's change-of-control filing came at an unusual time, likely ahead of this news, suggesting more than housekeeping. … Show more