AllllSevens
Stock-Market Research, Institutional Trading & Market Inefficiencies
ARK Innovation ETF's bull case is drawing whale support, with $4M of bullish options flow rolling July $75 calls up and out to September $82 calls. Bulls got confirmation from a monthly tweezer off support, though hedgers remain active and the low now sits 14% away, so this is not a spot to chase. x.com x.comÂ
ARK Innovation ETF may be seeing its strongest institutional buying in four years. After six months of bull-flag consolidation above its largest institutional support levels, heavily accumulated before being sold off in early 2022, it held prior lows and formed a tweezer bottom, its first serious attempt to reclaim those levels. A notable institutional seller just sold $3M of January 80 puts. x.comÂ
Innovation stocks no longer move inversely to Treasury yields, and that is the bull case. After the 2022 inflation shock, yields and these stocks have climbed together because yields are being pushed up by stronger real growth, AI capex, fiscal supply and fading recession fears, the same forces that lift disruptors' expected cash flows. The risk is a shift to deficits plus slowing growth, which would bring the old inverse correlation back immediately. x.com x.comÂ
Biotech's usual Q4 strength ahead of JPM season makes aggressive rallies in smaller names highly likely. ARKG is starting to break out, and PDS Biotechnology is showing multiple buy signals. If ARKG keeps running as expected, Nautilus Biotechnology, PDS Biotechnology and Quantum-Si could reasonably rally toward about $10 soon; broken chart structures would invalidate that view. x.com x.comÂ
ARK Innovation is a poor bet because Cathie Wood's track record is horrible and she did not see AI coming, so there is little reason to believe she can see around the next corner. Investors still put a net $2.5B into the fund in a week. x.comÂ
The Nasdaq 100's options structure remains bullish, with QQQ in positive gamma and gamma extending up toward 760. The 740-750 zone, traded repeatedly for months, is where positions are being digested, so a breakout may take time; as long as 740 holds, this is high-level consolidation. Volatility sellers dominate, keeping the VIX pinned near 15, and if spikes toward 16-20 keep getting sold, the backdrop for risk assets is unchanged; the VIX could reach 13 in October. x.comÂ
ARK Innovation is the biggest scam in finance, collecting management fees whether or not its bets work. Per @NoLimitGains, the fund is down 45% on its Cerebras position in one month and has lost over $40 million on SpaceX. x.comÂ
ARK Innovation ETF is unlikely to ever regain its Covid highs relative to the Nasdaq 100. It just hit a fresh 52-week low against the Nasdaq 100 and is nearing an all-time relative low, while carrying one of the highest ETF expense ratios. Cathie Wood day-trades names in the fund and has badly underperformed the index for years while collecting hundreds of millions in fees. x.comÂ
ARK Innovation ETF has investors paying to lose money: as @jbulltard1 notes, it lost ground even while innovative growth stocks rallied nonstop. A team of roughly 50 people still underperforms the S&P 500, and a random person on the street is probably a better stock picker than analysts relying on Monte Carlo simulations. @jbulltard1 also points out that its chief futurist, Brett Winton, sold Nvidia at around $18 and remains in the role. x.com x.com x.comÂ
