Microsoft is the cheapest of the Magnificent 7 and has moved back above its 100-day moving average. OpenAI's IPO this week should also help Microsoft. x.comÂ
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Stock & Bond Market Commentary
Microsoft should reach new all-time highs soon as the upcoming OpenAI IPO and its cheap valuation lift a stock that has been a laggard for a while. With an Anthropic IPO also ahead and compute scarce, the market should re-rate companies that invested in capex early, and Microsoft, like Oracle, has seen momentum ignition. x.comÂ
Azure's accelerating growth and better returns per capex dollar leave further upside on the table for Microsoft, the favored hyperscaler. Azure grew 48% versus 44-45% guidance, its fifth straight beat. The stock is holding eight-week EMA support, with the blue candle still intact. x.comÂ
Microsoft's position is the most crowded among the Magnificent Seven, and fund flows are against it as funds sell those stocks to reserve cash for Anthropic's IPO. It faded despite an excellent earnings report. x.comÂ
Microsoft's 50% Azure growth and prospect of positive cash flow in 2027 make the stock look bulletproof. Headcount cuts, lower Anthropic spend, a better Copilot routed to cheaper tokens, and coming proprietary chips and model usage add to the case. It should get Apple's multiple plus recognition for cybersecurity. x.com x.comÂ
Anthropic's S-1 and @UncleAlpha007's claim that Microsoft is growing despite a 27% headcount cut have turned the near-term tech-equity view bullish. At least a tradable rally is expected; further upside depends on Iran developments and PCE. Stay nimble. x.com x.comÂ
Upcoming SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs will probably pull liquidity out of Microsoft, Meta, software stocks and tax-loss-harvesting losers. A post the author quotes argues those listings over the next few months must draw money away from junkier stocks right after a big speculative run-up, and that it may be time to size up shorts. x.comÂ
Microsoft's salesforce and governed platform unlock AI spending at conservative firms. Faster enterprise than consumer AI adoption makes it effectively the only pure play. M365 Commercial may top 20% growth next quarter, sooner than expected on tonight's guide; GitHub resegmentation helps, but it should do so this year anyway. Azure and M365, two-thirds of revenue, should grow above 50% and 20% and may accelerate. $24-25 CY27 EPS remains achievable, implying under 22x forward earnings. x.com … Show more
Microsoft's hold on enterprise software and the cloud running AI makes it one of tech's best positions to own. Fiscal Q1 revenue rose 19% on Azure and the AI stack, while operating income rose 21% and net income 32%. Grade: A. x.comÂ
Microsoft and software stocks broadly still look expensive, because AI will get exponentially better over the next two years and the market may reset software valuations much lower. Software valuations have always been ludicrous, and heavy stock-based compensation behind many software revenues is widely ignored. Winners will emerge, but picking them is not worth trying. x.com x.comÂ
Microsoft's OpenAI exposure is a very good reason to keep it alongside Anthropic exposure through Alphabet and Amazon. The prior thought of reducing or exiting Microsoft has given way to a tentative hold, with no plans to add for now. x.comÂ