Donald Dean
Economist & Technical Analyst, Fibonacci/Gamma Trading
Forward Industries trades at a discount to its Solana treasury, so buying the stock is effectively buying Solana at a markdown. Realized mNAV is 0.73x and a realistic mNAV 0.92x, and it just added 357K SOL through purchases and staking rewards. The next resistance is $9 and the next Fibonacci target $13.51. x.comÂ
Forward Industries is basing after an 87% drawdown, from $46 last September to $3.48 in June, followed by months building a floor above its $4 shelf. Price is grinding toward the $6.46 level that has capped it since February; reclaiming it leaves little in the way, with $8.99 and then $13.51 above. Nearly every big options position is a call, at $7.50 and $10. x.comÂ
Solana's largest corporate holder moving tokens to an exchange is not a good look for SOL. Per a quoted report, Forward Industries, which holds over 7 million SOL, moved 455,784 SOL worth about $32M to Coinbase Prime after a month of inactivity, and Lookonchain estimates its treasury carries about $1.1B in unrealized losses. SOL trades around $66, about 77% below its record peak. x.comÂ
Solana is harder to fade because StonkFun's launchpad generated over $20 million in revenue in the last 30 days. SOL price action should follow. x.comÂ
Solana's financial activity is scaling through stablecoin volume and institutional tokenized funds. It reportedly processed $5 trillion in stablecoin volume in 2026, while JPMorgan Asset Management launched two tokenized money-market funds on Solana for qualified US investors through Morgan Money. x.com x.comÂ
Solana is struggling to sell blockspace, a commodity racing to zero, while heavily diluting holders. At this year's rate, fees come to about $300M against roughly $2.4B of newly minted SOL, and fees are down about 79% year over year amid competition from Ethereum, Base, Hyperliquid, Near and others. SOL is not money either, so neither a profitable-chain nor a monetary-premium bull case holds. Nasdaq earns 17x what Solana does while buying back about twice as much and issuing no shares. x.com … Show more
Solana's 85-fold improvement in finality has yet to show up in SOL's price. Finality fell from 12.8 seconds to about 150 milliseconds yesterday, while SOL slipped 2% and sits near $104 in the accumulation zone. Most won't notice until price does. x.comÂ
Small Solana treasury companies could be the easiest 20x of the next cycle and deserve a small place in a portfolio. Their smaller market caps carry more risk but also more reward, because their potential growth rates are much larger. x.comÂ
Strategy should trade at 0.5-0.6x mNAV, because crypto treasuries are designed grift vehicles with failing operating businesses. GBTC went from a 50% premium to a 50% discount to NAV once it became an efficient ETF, and crypto treasuries face the same dynamic, perhaps worse. This time is not different. x.comÂ
DeFi Development Corp. has over 50% upside potential as a small-float holder of SOL in a hot crypto-treasury sector. It holds 2,311,523 SOL, worth roughly $175-190M, against a 23M-share float, and SOL is up more than 11%. Its 5.0x relative volume tops a scanner led by crypto-treasury stocks. x.comÂ
Metaplanet is an incredible setup after going from the most loved bitcoin treasury company to the most hated in about a year. It still holds 43,000 BTC yet trades at just 0.84x mNAV, with perpetual preferreds coming online soon. x.comÂ
Solana keeps grinding higher because it is the fastest chain in the space, with real usage, real volume and builders shipping constantly while the rest of the market argues over narratives. The chart projects a 37% next move. x.comÂ
