Mike
Long-Term Investor, Technology & Crypto
Snap's share price looks set to be cut in half again, because more dilution is coming and CEO Evan Spiegel keeps selling billions of dollars of stock. Holding even 1,000 shares would take being paid to do it. x.com
Snap is a textbook case of shareholder value destruction through failed execution, massive stock-based compensation and super-voting shares. Per TechCrunch, it is now spinning off its AI video team into a new company, Dotmo, because of high costs. x.com
Snap's European monetization is improving even without user growth. Q2 revenue per daily user rose 36%, from $2.65 in 2025 to $3.62 in 2026, while daily users slipped from 100M to 98M. That leaves room to generate more revenue from the existing audience rather than relying on explosive user growth. x.com
Snap's new AR glasses, priced at $2,195, are a poor sign for shareholders. x.com
Snap is a red flag that does not put shareholders' interests first. Its growth comes mainly from countries with low pricing power while it plateaus or declines in the West. It has long diluted shareholders in a way that enriches its founders, and the CEO and his co-founder control over 90% of voting rights, leaving shareholders powerless. It should have been acquired when it had the chance. @Ashton_1nvests sees a path from about $6 to $20 or more. x.com
Snap's Spectacles cannot deliver meaningful commercial value within five years, making a funding partner essential to avoid years of cash burn. At best, they are a prototype, with zero chance of profitability in the next couple of years; the glasses will never sell at the scale needed to make a difference. Without a partner, Snap stock is dead money. Even so, Snap remains a good asymmetric bet on Evan Spiegel changing course, with little downside from here if he does not. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Snap has enriched insiders at shareholders' expense, with insiders paying themselves $11 billion since IPO against a market cap of just $8 billion today. Forcing out Evan Spiegel and cutting the endless stock-based compensation would earn it a chance, and the potential to turn the ship around is real. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Snap is one of the worst-run public companies relative to its potential, and CEO Evan has proved he is terrible at creating shareholder value. Stock-based awards to the board and over 5,000 employees dilute shareholders about 4% a year. Per @WOLF_Financial, Q1 EPS missed at -$0.05 versus $0.09 expected, the EBITDA guide fell short and Snap ended its Perplexity deal. It is not a dead company, but there are many better opportunities. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Snap's core business is priced like a cyclical commodity company, with its Specs AR glasses thrown in nearly free. Revenue grew from $4.6 billion in 2023 to $5.9 billion in 2025 and free cash flow from $35 million to $437 million, and management aims to keep the diluted share count stable from 2027. Valuing Specs at about $1 billion leaves core Snap at roughly 7.3x trailing and 5.1x 2027 EV/EBITDA. Better-than-feared Specs teasers and Meta's AR push make the setup asymmetric. x.com
Snap is an eternal value trap: cheap on paper, but weighed down by regulatory headaches, TikTok eating its lunch and endless dilution. x.com