Reddit's US ARPU growth is more impressive than the market credits. It rose 40% since March to $14 per quarter, while trailing free cash flow reached about $1.2B in September. The US daily-user chart is less flattering. x.com  x.com 

Snap is slowly turning into a subscription software company, with Snapchat+ revenue up 87% in Q1 to $285 million, nearly 19% of total revenue versus 11% a year ago and now a $1 billion annual run rate. The price target is $14. x.com  x.com 

Snap is a bad business that is cheap for good reason, and its latest quarter confirms it. Q1 EPS was -$0.05 versus $0.09 expected, revenue merely met estimates and Q2 revenue guidance is roughly in line. It ended its Perplexity relationship and expects $95-130 million of restructuring charges after cutting 16% of staff, aiming to remove over $500 million of annualized costs in the second half. The app is among the worst around, and management credibility is poor. x.com 

Reddit's push toward required logins could improve targeting and monetization but may hinder search discovery and add friction for casual users. Revenue rose 53% to $895M and free cash flow reached $363M, yet overall user growth lagged despite a good showing from US logged-in users; stock-based pay was higher than desired. Google will probably pressure near-term DAU growth. The finances remain solid, but the login strategy's impact on growth needs more clarity. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Snap's Spectacles cannot deliver meaningful commercial value within five years, making a funding partner essential to avoid years of cash burn. At best, they are a prototype, with zero chance of profitability in the next couple of years; the glasses will never sell at the scale needed to make a difference. Without a partner, Snap stock is dead money. Even so, Snap remains a good asymmetric bet on Evan Spiegel changing course, with little downside from here if he does not. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Snap's long-term future is in doubt because new users may not exist. Snapchat's distribution, reaching one in eight people, is the bull case, but it is unclear where its user base will be in 10 years, why Canva ranks ahead of it and whether it can age up. It looks like the ultimate acquisition target given that distribution, but it needs to make that happen soon, and it is unclear whether CEO Evan Spiegel can do it. x.com  x.com 

Reddit's logged-in users drive monetization, so weak search-driven traffic matters less than ARPU. Reddit says app and logged-in users grew sequentially in Q3 and generate over 80% of monetization, though lost search referrals also hurt them. ARPU rose 53% despite barely higher users; a low ad base could allow it to double even with muted growth. Restricting Google scraping might force a licensing deal that helps its Anthropic case and OpenAI renewal, though no deal is certain. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Meta's monetization advantage is enormous. Its average revenue per person has risen 62% since Q2 2023 to $16.90, nearly 3x Reddit's and more than 5x Snap's. AI spending is the risk, but this monetization engine helps fund that bet, making Meta one of seven stocks worth buying today. x.com  x.com 

Snap is undervalued, but management burning $4B+ on Specs is the biggest problem. At $2,000+ a pair, Specs are unlikely to go mass market: even 20M pairs, $40B of revenue and $10B of profit would be only a 150% ROI over 12 years, with under 1% odds of happening. Most shareholders would rather see $12-15B of revenue at 40% EBITDA margins with fewer employees and less dilution; Meta built a $1 trillion company on apps before spending on hardware. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Snap deserves more than the 6x 2027 EBITDA multiple Wells Fargo still assigns it. Wells Fargo raised its 2027 EBITDA estimate by 11% to $1.78 billion, partly on stronger Snap+ revenue, but kept that valuation multiple unchanged. x.com