Sean D. Emory
Founding Partner & CIO of Avory & Co., Avory Foundational ETF (AVRY)
Snap's long-term future is in doubt because new users may not exist. Snapchat's distribution, reaching one in eight people, is the bull case, but it is unclear where its user base will be in 10 years, why Canva ranks ahead of it and whether it can age up. It looks like the ultimate acquisition target given that distribution, but it needs to make that happen soon, and it is unclear whether CEO Evan Spiegel can do it. x.com x.comÂ
Snap investors should be nervous that Canva, a productivity and creative app, has moved ahead of it in a category ranking where Snap has historically placed first, second or third. Productivity apps generally sit well below truly habitual social apps, unless Canva's jump reflects some marketing push. x.com x.comÂ
Snap loses its users as they age out: once kids reach college they switch to GroupMe, Yik Yak, WhatsApp and iMessage, and Snap basically ends. x.comÂ
Snap is not investable until at least a change in management. Per @HatedMoats, Meta and Google have tried to buy Snap for years, even at 3x its value, and been refused each time. The CEO, who owns about 10%, should take a sale at the right price, such as $30B, or risk being left with nothing. x.comÂ
Snap's Spectacles cannot deliver meaningful commercial value within five years, making a funding partner essential to avoid years of cash burn. At best, they are a prototype, with zero chance of profitability in the next couple of years; the glasses will never sell at the scale needed to make a difference. Without a partner, Snap stock is dead money. Even so, Snap remains a good asymmetric bet on Evan Spiegel changing course, with little downside from here if he does not. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Snap is one of the worst-run public companies relative to its potential, and CEO Evan has proved he is terrible at creating shareholder value. Stock-based awards to the board and over 5,000 employees dilute shareholders about 4% a year. Per @WOLF_Financial, Q1 EPS missed at -$0.05 versus $0.09 expected, the EBITDA guide fell short and Snap ended its Perplexity deal. It is not a dead company, but there are many better opportunities. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Snap is a weak company because of CEO Evan Spiegel's product judgment. Its new Specs AR glasses, shown publicly for the first time, look so unappealing that they may be the first product ever to launch and not sell a single unit. x.com x.comÂ
Snap's European monetization is improving even without user growth. Q2 revenue per daily user rose 36%, from $2.65 in 2025 to $3.62 in 2026, while daily users slipped from 100M to 98M. That leaves room to generate more revenue from the existing audience rather than relying on explosive user growth. x.comÂ
Snap has enriched insiders at shareholders' expense, with insiders paying themselves $11 billion since IPO against a market cap of just $8 billion today. Forcing out Evan Spiegel and cutting the endless stock-based compensation would earn it a chance, and the potential to turn the ship around is real. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Snap is an eternal value trap: cheap on paper, but weighed down by regulatory headaches, TikTok eating its lunch and endless dilution. x.comÂ
Snap is slowly turning into a subscription software company, with Snapchat+ revenue up 87% in Q1 to $285 million, nearly 19% of total revenue versus 11% a year ago and now a $1 billion annual run rate. The price target is $14. x.com x.comÂ
Social media bans for young users, now introduced in the UK after Australia, should hurt Snap far more than Meta. Apps in general are unappealing investments. x.comÂ
