GURGAVIN
Technology Investor, Event-Driven Trader
Snap's European monetization is improving even without user growth. Q2 revenue per daily user rose 36%, from $2.65 in 2025 to $3.62 in 2026, while daily users slipped from 100M to 98M. That leaves room to generate more revenue from the existing audience rather than relying on explosive user growth. x.com
Snap's Spectacles cannot deliver meaningful commercial value within five years, making a funding partner essential to avoid years of cash burn. At best, they are a prototype, with zero chance of profitability in the next couple of years; the glasses will never sell at the scale needed to make a difference. Without a partner, Snap stock is dead money. Even so, Snap remains a good asymmetric bet on Evan Spiegel changing course, with little downside from here if he does not. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Snap has enriched insiders at shareholders' expense, with insiders paying themselves $11 billion since IPO against a market cap of just $8 billion today. Forcing out Evan Spiegel and cutting the endless stock-based compensation would earn it a chance, and the potential to turn the ship around is real. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Amazon, Uber, Netflix and Snap can become more valuable by earning more from audiences they already have. Amazon's ad revenue grew 26% to $19.8B last quarter; Uber's ads surpassed a $2.5B annualized run rate, growing roughly 50%; Netflix expects about $2.7B in ads this year; Snap's subscription-driven other revenue grew 85% to $316M last quarter. Investors underestimate how valuable that can become over time. x.com
Snap looks very interesting as a long-term buy at a forward P/E of 6 and a PEG of 0.21. Growth is expected near 10% for the next two years, with positive earnings expected from next year. x.com
Snap's long-term future is in doubt because new users may not exist. Snapchat's distribution, reaching one in eight people, is the bull case, but it is unclear where its user base will be in 10 years, why Canva ranks ahead of it and whether it can age up. It looks like the ultimate acquisition target given that distribution, but it needs to make that happen soon, and it is unclear whether CEO Evan Spiegel can do it. x.com x.com
Snap's core business is priced like a cyclical commodity company, with its Specs AR glasses thrown in nearly free. Revenue grew from $4.6 billion in 2023 to $5.9 billion in 2025 and free cash flow from $35 million to $437 million, and management aims to keep the diluted share count stable from 2027. Valuing Specs at about $1 billion leaves core Snap at roughly 7.3x trailing and 5.1x 2027 EV/EBITDA. Better-than-feared Specs teasers and Meta's AR push make the setup asymmetric. x.com
Snap deserves more than the 6x 2027 EBITDA multiple Wells Fargo still assigns it. Wells Fargo raised its 2027 EBITDA estimate by 11% to $1.78 billion, partly on stronger Snap+ revenue, but kept that valuation multiple unchanged. x.com
Snap is not a buy despite bullish takes after CEO Evan Spiegel's annual letter, given zero CEO buys in years, out-of-control stock comp and weak margins. Its FCF margin is 7.4% and net margin 14%, versus Reddit's 33% and 45%. If Snap reached about $9.2B of 2030 revenue at roughly 30% net margins, $1.55 EPS at about 26x would mean a $40 stock versus $5.50 today, but a lot needs to go right. x.com
Growth in operating metrics supports owning more SoFi, Brookfield, Amazon, Netflix, Uber and Snap: all six look seriously underestimated right now. Stock Analysis charts show SoFi revenue at $1.2B, Brookfield Wealth Solutions funds from operations at $480M, AWS revenue at $42.23B, Netflix revenue at $12.56B, Uber revenue at $14.19B and Snap other-segment revenue at $316.47M. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com