George Noble
Investment Writer, Former Fund Manager at Fidelity, Former Assistant to Peter Lynch
Bitcoin is falling because liquidity is draining from the system, and it feels that before stocks do. Gold is down nearly 30% from its high, silver more than half and bitcoin about half, as these assets are the first to bleed when money is pulled out. Per Michael Howell, who called the 2021 top, the 2022 collapse and this January's top, liquidity peaked in late 2025 and will tighten into year-end and 2027. Fed chair Kevin Warsh wants tightening; last time, bitcoin fell 75%. x.comÂ
Falling US bank reserves are a liquidity headwind for Bitcoin. Reserves rose back to $3.03 trillion around September 16 but dropped to $2.96 trillion last week; if they keep falling, that would weigh on Bitcoin. Caution is warranted from mid-to-late September and especially in late October, which may be the year's liquidity low, with more room for optimism toward year-end. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's pre-FOMC pump looks vulnerable because such moves usually retrace afterward and sweep below prior lows. That pattern now points to roughly $78K. Earlier, liquidations into FOMC and Bitcoin's strong hold near $80K despite another $79K test had suggested the correction might be over and that it could be a bad time to be bearish. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com x.com … Show more
Bitcoin's failure to decouple from AI leaves it at risk around the coming big hyperscaler earnings week. That linkage is worrying enough to prompt a 'timber' warning. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's valuation looks stretched relative to network use, raising the risk of selling pressure. Its market value has risen faster than active addresses, lifting the NVM ratio while address activity has not kept up with price. This is a valuation warning, not a definite top like 2021 or 2025, nor a signal that price must fall immediately; it could keep rising with NVM high. x.comÂ
Historic debt levels and currency debasement make Bitcoin's role as a store of value more important than ever, countering Jason Calacanis's call to sell it. x.comÂ
Bitcoin may need sustained demand above all to outweigh selling pressure, since even favorable catalysts have coincided with declines. BTC fell despite rate cuts, a pro-crypto president, institutional adoption and rising liquidity; it now faces rate hikes, war in Iran, inflation, AI-bubble fears, quantum risks and AI-driven crypto hacks. x.comÂ
Bitcoin still needs demand and short open interest before a bottom can be expected. Price reversed after taking liquidity at $84.6K; the nearest liquidity below is $79.6K, while $87K remains the strongest zone above and $90K is now the next target. Patience is warranted until that demand and short interest arrive; no bottom is expected yet. x.comÂ
A liquidity boost into equities and crypto, bitcoin included, is coming, but it will produce an obviously contrived blow-off top that is nothing to celebrate. x.comÂ
The US dollar's Stage 2 advance and a weak overall market tilt the evidence bearish for Bitcoin. Most crypto stocks are in Stage 4, and too little else confirms a new Stage 2 move. Bitcoin is likely to fail its recent move and resume Stage 4. x.com x.comÂ
