Heisenberg
Stock Chartist, Long/Short Ideas
Hormel Foods offers a dividend yield above 5% as a Dividend Aristocrat trading below 15x earnings, which could reward patient investors if growth rebounds. It is one of four high-yield picks chosen to avoid sucker yields, alongside VICI Properties, Ladder Capital and a global utility fund. x.comÂ
Conagra is priced for permanent decline when the market is really pricing in fear, setting up a turnaround. Its brands, including Slim Jim, Duncan Hines and Birds Eye, sit in 90% of American pantries, yet the stock is down 45% from its highs. A director bought $358,500 of stock at the 52-week low, a new CEO arrives June 1 after an 11-year tenure, and a 9.8% dividend yield pays holders to wait. Morningstar puts fair value at $32 versus a $14 price. x.comÂ
Hershey is a better consumer-staples bet than optically cheaper peers because its strong brand and balance sheet keep it out of dividend-cut risk. @CDInewsletter notes Campbell's just cut its dividend and expects General Mills to follow, as both are too levered, and argues a CPG turnaround bet should be limited to companies with excellent balance sheets. x.comÂ
McDonald's is getting more interesting for dividend investors: its dividend has compounded about 14% a year for 26 years since 2000. x.comÂ
The Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF's dividend growth is underrated and can make it a stronger income investment than high-yield funds. A 3.5% yield growing 8-10% a year could become far more powerful than an 8-10% yield ETF with no dividend growth. Income can beat inflation, and spending the dividend leaves no NAV erosion, so principal keeps growing. x.com x.comÂ
PepsiCo is an easy buy for a long-term dividend portfolio because its diversified brands can adapt to shifting health trends. Gatorade, soda, snacks and energy drinks are categories people will never stop consuming, and the recent Poppi purchase shows that adaptability, making PepsiCo preferable even to McDonald's. @TheRonnieVShow notes the stock sits on a 17-year trendline that has held since 2009. x.com x.comÂ
Quality dividend stocks look like a great place to be over the next few years as the crowded tech trade unwinds. Per @PeterBerezinBCA, in the early dotcom bust tech crashed while the rest of the market rose, so the hedge for stocks was other stocks. A quality dividend basket holds old-economy, cash-generative businesses at sane multiples, while the index hides 50% of its weight in names at 10 times sales. That outweighs a general dislike of dividends as inefficient, taxable compounding. x.com … Show more
J.M. Smucker is underrated because its brands, including Jif, Smucker's, Dunkin' packaged coffee, Milk-Bone, Meow Mix and fast-growing Uncrustables, are bought every week regardless of the economy. Coffee costs, supply-chain inflation and an underperforming Hostess deal hurt this year, but fiscal Q4 revenue rose 6% and adjusted EPS 20% to $2.77. It has raised its dividend 28 straight years, keeps the payout under 50% and still trades below its historical valuation. x.comÂ
The Global X SuperDividend ETF is a silly product that works well as a short to hedge long positions. Simply buying the world's highest-yielding dividend stocks is virtually guaranteed to underperform in almost all market conditions because of adverse selection. The fund has produced essentially zero total return, dividends included, over 15 years of a raging bull market. The short won't pay off in every rolling 12-month period, but it does in most. x.com x.com x.comÂ
General Mills looks like a good buy after a sharp selloff. @tsxman notes it trades at trough multiples, as Campbell's does, possibly dragged down by Conagra's CEO change, and argues that consumers keep buying its products every week. x.comÂ