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Conagra is priced for permanent decline when the market is really pricing in fear, setting up a turnaround. Its brands, including Slim Jim, Duncan Hines and Birds Eye, sit in 90% of American pantries, yet the stock is down 45% from its highs. A director bought $358,500 of stock at the 52-week low, a new CEO arrives June 1 after an 11-year tenure, and a 9.8% dividend yield pays holders to wait. Morningstar puts fair value at $32 versus a $14 price. x.comÂ
Conagra Brands looks set to break out as new CEO Brase attacks its $7.1 billion debt and puts his own money in. He cut the dividend 50% on July 15 and the stock barely blinked, and he has now filed a 35,000-share purchase, about $510,000. Addition to the S&P SmallCap 600 on June 30 brings fresh demand, and high-protein GLP-1 products launch this summer. A weekly falling wedge is breaking out on heavy volume; $19.66 is the level to watch, 30%+ upside if it holds. x.com x.comÂ
Campbell's outlook is deteriorating. It cut its dividend from 39 cents to 25 cents, lowered guidance and said 2027 looks even worse. x.comÂ
Kraft Heinz is starting to curl higher on the chart and pays a sweet 6.5% dividend, making it a good fit for a retirement account. x.comÂ
J.M. Smucker is underrated because its brands, including Jif, Smucker's, Dunkin' packaged coffee, Milk-Bone, Meow Mix and fast-growing Uncrustables, are bought every week regardless of the economy. Coffee costs, supply-chain inflation and an underperforming Hostess deal hurt this year, but fiscal Q4 revenue rose 6% and adjusted EPS 20% to $2.77. It has raised its dividend 28 straight years, keeps the payout under 50% and still trades below its historical valuation. x.comÂ
Hormel Foods offers a dividend yield above 5% as a Dividend Aristocrat trading below 15x earnings, which could reward patient investors if growth rebounds. It is one of four high-yield picks chosen to avoid sucker yields, alongside VICI Properties, Ladder Capital and a global utility fund. x.comÂ
Vital Farms might be in serious trouble as egg prices fall and its premium over regular eggs erodes, after a badly timed buyback and expansion. It drew its revolver and took an expensive Silver Point term loan that will crush free cash flow, and mothballed its new plant. EBITDA of $0-10M this year, against an EV over $600M, does not cover interest. Even normalized, it trades at 10-15x EBITDA for a commodity, versus single digits for Cal-Maine. Only another big bird-flu outbreak would rescue it. … Show more
PepsiCo offers a share-price recovery bet as international growth continues and North American demand has room to improve. It owns Pepsi, Lay's, Doritos and Gatorade; Q2 revenue rose 6.4% to $24.2 billion, international beverages organic revenue grew 9%, and management still expects 5-7% core EPS growth in 2026. The recovery still has to happen, as North American beverage volume fell 4% last quarter. x.comÂ
Hershey is a better consumer-staples bet than optically cheaper peers because its strong brand and balance sheet keep it out of dividend-cut risk. @CDInewsletter notes Campbell's just cut its dividend and expects General Mills to follow, as both are too levered, and argues a CPG turnaround bet should be limited to companies with excellent balance sheets. x.comÂ
General Mills looks like a good buy after a sharp selloff. @tsxman notes it trades at trough multiples, as Campbell's does, possibly dragged down by Conagra's CEO change, and argues that consumers keep buying its products every week. x.comÂ
Coca-Cola looks like a great funding short, since nothing makes it immune to the risks that battered its staples peers. GLP-1 drugs, store brands, new entrants and supply-chain inflation should hit it too, and non-sugar drinks only slow the U.S. decline, though international has held up better. About 2% revenue growth is thin support for 25x earnings while peers sit at 2008 valuations; it could fall to 15x unless the other staples rebound dramatically. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
