Heisenberg
Stock Chartist, Long/Short Ideas
The Lumentum merger makes Marvell's path toward a $1 trillion valuation look clearer if it executes well. Jensen Huang had called Marvell the next $1 trillion company. Lumentum's demand is sold for the next two to three years, though whether that gives Marvell an edge remains an open question. Marvell looks like a long-term opportunity, but the route to building a position is still unclear. x.comÂ
Marvell can become the next $1 trillion company, which makes the investing case simple. Jensen Huang was cited as saying so, and even if that comment actually referred to AMD, Marvell can still reach the mark. x.com x.comÂ
Marvell looks like the biggest bubble mankind has ever seen at about 100x trailing earnings, 170x forward earnings and 33x sales. The stock added about $110 a share, roughly $100B of market cap, after Jensen Huang said it will become a trillion-dollar company. x.comÂ
Marvell is down 16% from its recent all-time high despite strong signals that aren't being talked about enough. Jensen Huang called it the next trillion-dollar company on June 2, President Trump made his largest purchase, $5.25M of Marvell, in July, and Marvell signed a custom chip partnership with Alphabet last month. x.comÂ
Marvell looks interesting at less than 30x calendar-2027 EPS against expected 60-70% annual EPS growth, but overpaying for Lumentum could drive its shares lower. Marvell could pay up to $110B, roughly a 30% premium; the stock-versus-debt mix is unclear, and Lumentum holders might own a third of the combined company. If the deal falls apart, Marvell could rise 10-12%. x.comÂ
Marvell's roughly $90 billion valuation jump on a single comment is not sustainable; the only question is how long it can last. Per The Kobeissi Letter, the stock rose over 45% in two days after NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang said it could become the next trillion-dollar company. x.comÂ
Buying Lumentum would make Jensen Huang's $1 trillion vision for Marvell seem more realistic, but a roughly $200 billion Marvell would need to dilute shareholders heavily to acquire an approximately $80 billion Lumentum. The deal was still reported as nearing agreement, not completed. x.comÂ
Marvell is the next trillion-dollar company, and its growth trend should continue when it reports Q2 on August 27. Jensen Huang said Marvell is the next Micron. x.comÂ
Marvell's potential Lumentum acquisition may fail to increase per-share value because the added profits may not cover dilution and financing costs. A simplified calculation using reported market values implies roughly 38%-45% more shares, requiring about 45% more combined net profit to preserve EPS; debt would add interest and repayment pressure. If the price already reflects future growth, a control premium and possible customer concerns add risk. x.comÂ
Marvell is not toast, but the $1 trillion valuation a post the author replies to attributes to Jensen Huang is unlikely in 2026 and most likely comes sometime in 2027. x.comÂ