Deep Value Investing
Value Investor, Long-Term Compounding
Gold can go much higher over time, possibly to $10,000 eventually, because currency debasement is real, governments are not becoming fiscally disciplined and debt is not disappearing. The recent quiet after a 15-20% pullback changed only the price, not the fundamentals. Still, gold produces nothing and can do little for years after speculative runs, so it may protect wealth while great businesses compound it, which makes productive assets the preferred vehicle. x.comÂ
Gold is set to take off as energy-driven stagflation traps the Fed and negative real rates favor it. Today's dovish hold was likely its last chance to hike: once the AI bubble bursts, the Fed loses that option, while current debt-to-GDP rules out Volcker-style hikes without fiscal insolvency. Per Macrotrends' chart, gold rose eightfold from its 1976 low to its 1980 high, equivalent to $32,000 gold over five years in today's terms. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold is extremely attractive now because rising market fear could make it a great hedge. It has fallen nearly 30% from its January all-time high and returned to the accumulation zone. If this level holds, expect a bounce soon. x.comÂ
Gold has formed a multi-year top at $5.6K and won't return there before 2030. It is in a high-timeframe distribution phase, with trillions of dollars rotating out of gold into US equities, bitcoin and Chinese equities, fueling the next risk-on environment. Silver showed a classic blow-off top, and the same applies to gold. x.comÂ
Gold is a forever asset because money can be printed, while gold was there before money and will remain after it. Diamonds, by contrast, are finished now that De Beers' monopoly has been exposed. x.comÂ
Gold's dip on rate-driven opportunity costs is a buying opportunity, because higher rates force faster money-supply growth. The system is designed that way, since letting defaults ripple through it is politically unfeasible, and that pressure will intensify until the great monetary reset. x.comÂ
Gold-making machines are real, undermining gold's scarcity. Gold goes to zero; unlike Bitcoin, whose supply is fixed at 21 million, new gold can be made. x.comÂ
Government will never stop printing money, which should make bitcoin, gold and land do well for two decades. x.comÂ
Gold should benefit because the US Treasury and the Fed will do whatever it takes to bring long-term bond yields under control and save confidence in the dollar. That means de facto money printing through new short-term debt, swap lines to governments hurt by the Iran war and buying foreign currencies so holders don't sell US debt. These actions are inflationary, making crypto and gold the assets to own. Stocks can keep rising for a while but may not stay the fastest runner. x.comÂ
There is no reason to hold gold. x.comÂ
Gold faces confiscation risk that Bitcoin held through memorized seed words may avoid. Americans had to surrender gold for $20.67 an ounce in 1933; a year later it was priced at $35. That risk does not overturn owning both. x.comÂ
