Babyfolio
Software Engineer, AI Infrastructure Investor
Gold is hard to hold at a 0% yield while interest rates keep rising. @Mr_Derivatives notes gold's 3.93% drop at the close was the fifth-worst drawdown of the year, driven by rates. x.comÂ
Gold is falling because a resilient, accelerating economy pushes yields and the dollar higher, and no one wants safe havens in a risk-on market. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is accelerating, and yields are rising even as crude falls, so the move reflects growth rather than inflation fears; the bond market is giving the Fed permission to hike. Gold, precious metals, Treasuries and defensive stocks have slumped, with staples and utilities at all-time lows relative to the S&P 500. x.comÂ
Gold is a better home for retirement savings now because bad assets get dumped into pension funds and savers can be left with nothing. x.comÂ
Gold-making machines are real, undermining gold's scarcity. Gold goes to zero; unlike Bitcoin, whose supply is fixed at 21 million, new gold can be made. x.comÂ
Gold depends on finding a greater fool to buy it, which is increasingly problematic because bitcoin is a perfectly scarce version of gold that is portable over the internet. x.comÂ
Gold is extremely attractive now because rising market fear could make it a great hedge. It has fallen nearly 30% from its January all-time high and returned to the accumulation zone. If this level holds, expect a bounce soon. x.comÂ
Gold will see a diamond-like price decline if lab-grown gold takes hold. The quoted post says lab-grown diamonds halved diamond prices since 2016; gold is currently the largest asset class on Earth, so its money moving into Bitcoin could be consequential. x.comÂ
Gold tends to perform poorly when liquidity contracts, while it performs best during recoveries. Gold looks likely to fall next year. x.com x.comÂ
Gold can go much higher over time, possibly to $10,000 eventually, because currency debasement is real, governments are not becoming fiscally disciplined and debt is not disappearing. The recent quiet after a 15-20% pullback changed only the price, not the fundamentals. Still, gold produces nothing and can do little for years after speculative runs, so it may protect wealth while great businesses compound it, which makes productive assets the preferred vehicle. x.comÂ
Gold's failure to rise even after rates pulled back decently challenges the earlier high-rate explanation for its weakness. GLD is close to fresh 11-month lows and just closed at a new 14-month low relative to the S&P 500. Gold has trended down since its parabolic January peak. x.com x.comÂ