The closed Strait of Hormuz adds an energy-driven inflation shock that pushes long-dated US Treasury yields higher still. Japan and China, the two biggest foreign Treasury holders, are dumping $5.35 trillion and $550 billion in Treasuries respectively; more supply requires higher yields to draw buyers, raising US debt-financing costs. The bond shock then pressures stocks, real estate and crypto, with October 12 at risk of one of 2026's biggest market sell-offs. x.com 

Persistently high yields would make borrowing more expensive and pressure US stocks, housing and the government. Treasury tripled its bond buyback to $6 billion, yet the 10-year yield climbed to 4.85%, its highest since November 2023, after last month's doubled $4 billion buyback had cut the 30-year yield by nearly 10 basis points. Oil above $100, rising US debt and inflation fears are pushing yields higher. x.com 

US equities have a real floor because foreign investors are too heavily invested to exit quickly. 63% of foreign financial assets now sit in US stocks, above the 53% record set at the 2000 dot-com peak, and foreign holdings have tripled from $7.5T in 2020 to $23.2T. During the tariff panic, foreign capital piled in rather than fled, adding $2T in April alone. An unwind of $23T cannot happen quietly or fast; the exit door is too small. x.com 

US stocks face a black swan as the 30-year Treasury yield broke above 5.3%, its highest since June 2007. Higher long yields lift borrowing costs for households and companies, act like a rate hike before the Fed moves, and pull money from stocks into Treasuries. Yields are rising on heavy AI corporate debt issuance and surging US deficits, with $40 trillion of government debt costing about $1 trillion a year in interest. AI hardware sold off: SanDisk -9%, SK hynix -8.6%, Micron -7.3%. x.com 

US stocks face a quiet but serious risk from the bond market, where the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007. Rising yields act like a slow tax, making borrowing costlier and pulling money from stocks; they reflect heavy borrowing, sticky inflation and a flood of corporate debt. The government had to announce large buybacks of long-term bonds to push yields down, which worked for now. A high yield is not a crash by itself, but it is a warning light. x.com 

Long-dated US Treasury yields face structural upward pressure until deficits fall, and neither party shows the will to cut them. US deficits of 6% are the highest ever outside a major war, and debt above $40 trillion against $33 trillion of GDP could be the breaking point. Japan's 10-year yield near 3%, the highest since 1996, gives it reason to sell some of its $1 trillion of Treasuries, and the UK, holding $0.9 trillion, has 10-year yields at 5.1%. Fed action may only briefly slow the rise. … Show more

US stocks face pressure from rising yields and rate-hike anxiety as elevated oil keeps inflation fears alive. A global bond selloff deepened, the 10-year Treasury yield moved toward 5.2% and the 30-year touched levels last seen in 2004. Higher yields pressure stocks, bonds and borrowing costs, keeping US investors cautious; the S&P 500 edged lower and the Dow fell 0.3%. x.com 

The bid for US Treasuries is thinning beyond Japan, leaving the US needing new buyers to fund its borrowing. Net purchases by the most US-aligned countries are down more than 60% to their lowest since 2021; South Korea sold a record $23.8 billion, the most since 1977. x.com 

AI borrowing is pushing rates up because hyperscalers will pay any price for money, so rates must keep rising until they hurt price-sensitive borrowers. Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle sold about $194 billion of bonds by early July, 79% more than in all of 2025, and the 10-year yield touched 5.33%, the highest since 2002. Julien Garran warns a downturn may not lower long yields much, with big deficits everywhere while Japan and China step back from Treasuries. x.com 

US stocks look increasingly vulnerable: high interest rates are making long positions harder, while more bearish setups are appearing as the market worsens. x.com