Deep Value Investing
Value Investor, Long-Term Compounding
Palantir still trades at 87 times sales even after falling 20% this year. x.com
Palantir's valuation leaves it vulnerable to a nasty reversal. Its attached metrics show 178.8x trailing earnings, 80.1x trailing sales on an enterprise-value basis, and 110x next-twelve-month earnings. x.com
Palantir's government contract activity is growing sharply, supporting its resilience despite the share-price pullback. Its $2.1 billion in 12-month obligations is up 184% from the prior year, among the strongest increases tracked. The Cryptic Bottom Index remains green despite the pullback. Its score is among the highest in the Cryptic Research System, led by growth and profitability, though catalysts and valuation score weakest. x.com x.com x.com
Palantir still looks crazily valued at 78 times earnings, and there is a reasonable chance it is partly a fraud. @CoorsLightCEO counters that it now looks reasonable if FY27 estimates hold, though not cheap. x.com x.com
Palantir is overvalued, trading around 100 times forward earnings, 161 times trailing earnings and 73 times sales. x.com
Continued improvement in fundamentals and technicals could carry Palantir to megacap scale. A $1 trillion market cap is a realistic destination for strong growth companies, and Palantir appears on that path, though its timing is uncertain. Drawdowns remain opportunities to accumulate until the thesis changes. x.com
Palantir at a $1 trillion valuation is very large compared with its peers and difficult to scale, and its business is hard to understand tangibly the way Google, Amazon or Meta's are. Selling it for broad S&P 500 exposure offers better diversification. x.com x.com
Palantir's share price demands unusually fast cash and profit growth despite its strong business. At roughly $210, it implies 48.5% annual growth for five years; at 32% annual growth, the shares would be worth $96.64. It is a Watch, not a Buy at today's prices. Q2 sales rose 93% and cash flow after employee stock pay was $2.52 billion over 12 months, but government concentration, cancellable contracts and rising stock pay remain risks. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Palantir may be undervalued because the market values it as a software company while its opportunity is much bigger. It spans AI deployment, government contracts, enterprise adoption and mission-critical data infrastructure, and expensive stocks can stay expensive when the business keeps expanding. x.com
Palantir at 50x sales is not undervalued, despite CEO Alex Karp saying on CNBC that the company is systemically undervalued. Insiders are selling shares like hot cakes, which makes his claim look false. x.com